April was a mostly dry month, and while there were significant rainfall events, they were very localized, with temperatures ranging from intense heat to record-breaking cold. This lack of rainfall helped the drought progress somewhat, but fortunately, the rainy season is about to begin.
Drought Monitor Update
Nationally, the most recent report, as of April 30, 2025, showed that the drought covered 46.5% of the area, having increased by just 0.7% compared to April 15. This is a minimal change given that we are in the dry season, the driest time of year. The northern and northwestern states continue to be the most affected.
Intensity by Region
Municipalities experiencing exceptional drought continue to increase across Coahuila, Chihuahua, Sonora, Sinaloa, and Durango, rising from 94 to 119, while the total number of municipalities experiencing any type of drought increased from 452 to 468, spanning Baja California and Baja California Sur to the Bajío region and isolated areas in the Pacific and southeastern states.
In Sonora, Chihuahua, Sinaloa, Durango, and Coahuila, they remain under the ravages of this natural phenomenon, but in part, it is socially influenced by the increasing need for water. The condition has seen little increase in extent due to the low water level; it would be different if it were a summer without a monsoon, which could further complicate the matter.
Moderate drought conditions remain present, with minimal changes, in the Bajío region, the Pacific states, and the Gulf of Mexico. Isolated areas are abnormally dry in Nayarit, Jalisco, Michoacán, Colima, Guanajuato, Querétaro, San Luis Potosí, Zacatecas, Aguascalientes, Hidalgo, Veracruz, the State of Mexico, Morelos, Guerrero, Puebla, Oaxaca, Tabasco, Chiapas, and Campeche.
The northwest and north remain under exceptional drought conditions, impacting various productive sectors and the population; however, the rainy season is about to begin, with a rainy June likely.
In contrast, Mexico City, Quintana Roo, Tlaxcala, and Yucatán remain drought-free, although some areas of the south-central states, such as Colima, Chiapas, Campeche, and Tabasco, among others, are experiencing only abnormally dry conditions.
Rainfall Shortage in Recent Weeks
Much of the past month saw a significant rainfall deficit due to the dominance of both warm and cold anticyclones. Before mid-April, record temperatures reached -7°C in the valleys of Puebla, Hidalgo, Tlaxcala, and Veracruz. In the second half of the month, above-average rainfall was recorded along the northern border of the Gulf of Mexico.
Relative Humidity Forecast (Percentage)
Dry conditions and extreme heat are expected this week to begin across much of the country; however, rainfall will increase later in the month and into June.
On average, accumulated rainfall of 5-20 mm was recorded, but locally, abundant rainfall was recorded in the eastern and southeastern states due to Cold Front 37, reaching extremes of 150 to 250 mm in Chiapas. At the end of the month, the southeast in Chiapas was the rainiest region in the country, supported by ocean moisture and the relief.
How are dams performing?
The northwest continues to dry out, with more and more areas experiencing water shortages and negative effects on agriculture. Several dams are less than 10% full: Cuauhtémoc, Rodolfo Félix, Lázaro Cárdenas, Plutarco Elías, and Adolfo Ruíz C. in Sonora; Las Lajas and El Tintero in Chihuahua; Luis Donaldo and Adolfo López in Sinaloa; Peñuelitas in Guanajuato; and La Llave and La Venta in Querétaro.
The neutral ENSO phase would help regulate rainfall in Mexico, but extreme flooding and very dry periods are still likely this summer. Tropical waves and cyclones, as well as the monsoon, will soon be our salvation! It’s important to note that the northeast maintains levels of occupancy above 50%, with some exceeding 80-90%, such as Cerro Prieto with 105.9%. In the case of Cutzamala, it continues to have good levels, with 62.39% in Valle de Bravo, 35.47% in Villa Victoria, and 42.57% in El Bosque, for an average of 50.87% in the system.
Overview of the Coming Weeks
While this first half of May has seen very localized rains, with intense heat expected this week from May 13 to 20, rainfall is likely to gradually increase by the end of the month, still in the central-eastern half: Coahuila, Nuevo León, Tamaulipas, Veracruz, Tabasco, Chiapas, Campeche, Yucatán, Quintana Roo, Oaxaca, Puebla, Guerrero, Tlaxcala, Mexico City, Morelos, Puebla, and surrounding areas.
However, a major change could occur during the course of June due to a rapid increase in tropical activity in the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Pacific, also activating the Mexican monsoon. We still have a few days of intense heat and little rain ahead, but we will soon reap great benefits from the rain; we must take extreme precautions!
Source: meteored
