Canada is increasingly willing to expel Mexico from the USMCA. All because of growing Canadian nationalism and populism, materialized by the head of the government of the province of Ontario, Doug Ford, and the lukewarm position of the Canadian Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau.
Diplomatic sources in Ottawa told EFE that at this time Canadian politicians are interested in launching a provocative message that makes Mexico the problem of North American trade, given the return of Donald Trump to the Presidency of the United States as of January 20, 2025.
Another diplomat suggests that the Canadian strategy would be part of a negotiating tactic in view of the review in 2026 of the trade agreement to extract painful concessions because the exit of the Latin American country is “almost impossible” given the economic interconnection that exists in the region.
But there are also experts who consider that the approach of Canadian politicians is not a ruse and that the original North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which in 1994 incorporated Mexico into the agreement that Canada and the United States already had, had many detractors.
Automotive industry is the key in the T-MEC
The professor emeritus of Politics at the University of Toronto, Nelson Wiseman, recalled this Friday in statements to EFE that he has not been surprised by Ford’s proposal or the support he has received from other provincial heads of government.
“I have not been surprised because Canada was not in favor of expanding NAFTA in 1994 when Mexico joined. Since then, Canada’s automobile industry has lost out to Mexico,” said Wiseman.
The academic added that “Ottawa is not opposed to Mexico remaining in the agreement as long as it is not at Canada’s expense.”
The automobile industry is the key to the controversy.
On November 12, Doug Ford stressed that while the United States and Canada have already announced that they will apply 100 percent tariffs on Chinese cars, Mexico has not only not done so but is opening the door for manufacturers from the Asian giant to establish themselves in its territory.
“If Mexico wants a bilateral trade agreement with Canada, God bless them, but I am not going to let them sink me with these cheap imports that take jobs from men and women in Ontario,” he said.
What is Trudeau’s position on Mexico and the USMCA?
The main defender of the USMCA in Canada has so far been the ruling Liberal Party and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
But his low popularity in the polls, which place him more than 20 points behind the opposition Conservative Party, has caused Trudeau and the Liberals to adopt more nationalist and populist positions.
Although Liberal MPs contacted by EFE refused to comment on the possible expulsion of Mexico, Trudeau on Thursday offered a lukewarm defense of the current trade agreement, saying that, although the USMCA is a “success” for the three countries, he does not reject any possibility.
“We are leaving the door open because my job is and always will be to defend Canadian workers, defend the Canadian economy, defend Canadian interests,” he declared in one of his most nationalistic messages in recent years.
It would not be the first time in recent months that Trudeau has implemented policies that he has criticized in the past.
In February of this year, Canada again required Mexican visitors to have a visa, a controversial measure imposed in 2009 by the government of conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper and repealed by Trudeau as soon as he came to power at the end of 2015.
An additional factor will be what happens in the next Canadian general election, scheduled for the end of 2025, but which could be brought forward at any time because Trudeau’s government is in the minority in the lower house of Parliament.
The populist Pierre Poilievre, leader of the Conservatives and who has a good chance of being the next Canadian leader, declared that he would “fight fire with fire” if Trump imposes tariffs on Canada. Something that would be the final straw for the T-MEC.
Source: elfinanciero
