BBVA Mexico has warned that mass deportation measures proposed by Donald Trump could lead to a recession and increased inflation in the United States. However, the institution also noted that it is unlikely Trump will implement such large-scale deportations.
Economic Impact
Carlos Serrano, BBVA Mexico’s chief economist, stated that the probability of these measures being enacted is low due to the significant damage they would cause to the US economy. He explained that while Trump might have the resources to carry out mass deportations, doing so could trigger a recession and serious inflationary problems.
Logistical Challenges
Serrano highlighted the logistical difficulties of locating and deporting undocumented migrants, who are not concentrated in specific areas. He also pointed out that the US currently has one of the lowest unemployment rates in recent decades, meaning that deporting migrants would not necessarily result in American workers filling those jobs. Instead, many positions, particularly in sectors like construction and airports, would remain vacant.
Remittances and Economic Factors
Regarding remittances, Serrano predicted an increase in income for 2025, estimating $67.9 billion, a 3% rise from this year’s forecasts. He emphasized that remittance flows are more influenced by economic factors than political ones, and he does not expect a significant drop in remittances due to political issues.
Opportunities for Migrants in Mexico
Gabriela Rodríguez, general secretary of the National Population Council (Conapo), highlighted the potential for integrating migrants into Mexico’s economic activity through Development Poles projects. She noted that the relocation of companies, or nearshoring, presents an opportunity to strengthen Mexico’s labor force and provide employment for returning compatriots.
Rodríguez emphasized that relocation is currently the most important economic policy, with the president discussing 12 new development poles, including railway development. She also mentioned that the aging economically active population in Mexico could benefit from the migration phenomenon, supporting the country’s labor base.
Source: Milenio
