The forecast maintains the interaction of winter systems over Mexican territory, causing rain and storm conditions, some hail, wind and a significant decrease in temperatures within the next 3-5 days. Which states will have these effects? Find out below.
Winter weather developing
Cold front 15 will be reactivating (or the new 16 arriving) over the northeast and east of the country, extending into the Gulf of Mexico during the course of today, Friday, due to the reinforcement of polar-arctic air from Alaska and Canada towards the United States and Mexico, destabilizing with a trough.
Also, the jet stream will be joining, in addition to having support from the relief of the Mexican territory, resulting in areas of rain and storms and that, when combined with the reinforced air, will cause the temperature to be lower with a feeling of cold in the Altiplano, northeast, center and east of the country.
This front will cross the Yucatan Peninsula over the weekend, where the cold air will arrive weaker, only to reduce heat or cool slightly with isolated rains. Also, a polar trough could cross from the southeast of the US towards the west of the country, suggesting some models that the circulation will close in a DANA.
Forecast of winds at 500 mb
A polar trough will form, while the cold front strengthens and the jet stream activates, whose interaction will cause winter weather, reaching Christmas Day.
However, if only the polar trough remains, the contribution of humidity from the Pacific with rains could be greater in central-southern states around Christmas, but if it manages to close in a DANA, the effects will be more intense in rains and cold. We will be updating the conditions in the next few days.
Where will it rain?
As Friday progresses, cloudiness will increase, with rain and thunderstorms of 10-25 mm, with local amounts of 30-50 mm in Tamaulipas, Nuevo Leon, Zacatecas, Durango, San Luis Potosi and Veracruz, and even more than 70 mm in the Huasteca region.
Rain may be active this weekend in the states of the Altiplano with some hail; snow is still likely on volcanoes >3800 meters.
More isolated rain is expected in Queretaro, Hidalgo, Guanajuato, Puebla, State of Mexico, Mexico City, Michoacan, Jalisco, Morelos, Oaxaca, Tabasco, Chiapas, Quintana Roo and southern Coahuila and Chihuahua.
On Saturday, the amount of rain will decrease, but it will extend over a large part of the Altiplano from Bajio to the Valley of Mexico; Accumulations of 5-20 mm with local amounts of 30-50 mm are likely in Zacatecas, Nuevo Leon, Tamaulipas, Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan, Aguascalientes, San Luis Potosi, Queretaro, Hidalgo, Veracruz, State of Mexico, Mexico City, Morelos Puebla, Tlaxcala, Guerrero and Oaxaca.
Accumulated rainfall forecast in millimeters
Scattered rain and storms, some strong, are forecast in the Altiplano, east, center and south-southeast of the country. In the Huasteca and surrounding areas there could be accumulations greater than 70 mm.
On Sunday there would be a very similar panorama in distribution and amount of rain in these entities, except that they would begin to decrease in Nuevo Leon, Zacatecas, Aguascalientes and the Gulf of Mexico region.
December cold in several states
The states of the north, northeast, center, east and southeast are where the polar-arctic reinforcement would move, with the Gulf Coast and Altiplano being the center with the most notable effects. Today Friday and tomorrow Saturday, maximum temperatures of 15 to 25 °C are expected in these regions, but in the mountains they would be around 5 to 15 °C with fog and wind.
From Chihuahua to Tamaulipas, temperatures are estimated to be 16 to 24 °C; 20-26 °C in Bajío; 15 to 22 °C in the Valley of Mexico and 25 to 32 °C in the southeast. By Sunday, the northeast would begin to increase temperatures with 20 to 28 °C becoming more temperate to slightly warm, similar for states in the southeast.
Temperature anomaly in degrees Celsius
Northern Mexico will be less cold than usual, while the central-southern half will cool down under cloudiness and rain with winter weather.
The Altiplano will cool down almost entirely with 15-20 °C, but between the State of Mexico, Mexico City, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo and the mountains of Guanajuato, Querétaro, Michoacán, Morelos and Veracruz, maximum temperatures of only 10 to 18 °C are expected due to increased cloudiness and rain. In contrast, all the Pacific states will remain warm between 30 and 40 °C.
A couple more days of winter weather
Without major changes in the preliminary scenario, the models still show that in the central-southern states, winter weather would extend from Michoacán, the Valley of Mexico and towards Morelos, Guerrero and Oaxaca, due to a very active jet stream.
It will depend on how much the polar trough extends or even if the circulation is closed in a DANA between December 23-25 with rain and a cool-cold environment with snow in the mountains between Christmas Eve and Christmas. The rest of the country, temperatures could rather increase.
Source: meteored
