The Mexican economy, and mainly that of Nuevo León, begins this 2025 in the midst of political and economic uncertainty due to the “Trump factor”.
At the local level, the political conflict between the Legislative, Executive and Municipal Powers puts at risk not only what has been achieved in public policies and infrastructure works by the Government of Samuel García, but also the entry of more foreign direct investment (FDI) for this year that begins.
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Economists from UANL, Anpec and Caintra consider that 2025 is complex and difficult for Mexico, because the ghost of a recession “hovers”, and they add that the US economy is already showing a slowdown, which affects the economy of Nuevo León.
Cuauhtémoc Rivera, president of the National Alliance of Small Merchants (Anpec), said that a price increase is expected for basic products, but not only that, but also a general increase in property taxes, water rates and urban transport.
“We see general increases in property taxes and there will be moderate to very aggressive increases. There are municipalities that will compensate for the fall in federal contributions and they will do so between eight and 12 percent.”
“Those who pay the price for all this are the citizens. Regarding the inflationary process, we have detected increases between 25 percent and up to 30 percent, where we observe that several businesses have updated their prices, as has already occurred with bakery products, dairy products, beer, cigarettes, soft drinks and gasoline,” said the leader of Anpec.
Rivera mentioned that there are several products that pay IEPS (Special Tax on Production and Services) on gasoline, soft drinks, cigarettes, pet food, among others.
“All of this is what makes up the January slope or the beginning of the January slope that previously lasted two or three months, now lasts the entire first half of each year,” he stressed.
For Máximo Vedoya, president of Caintra, the end of 2024 was better than expected, with positive figures for Nuevo León and for Mexico.
“We have many challenges, but also opportunities to continue taking advantage of the nearshoring situation. Although the economy experienced a slowdown due to international uncertainty, the end of the year has been better than expected, given greater external demand and a stronger economy in the United States,” said the leader of the industrialists.
He explained that Nuevo León is the main state generating manufacturing employment with a closing of more than 29 thousand new jobs, and that one in three jobs in the manufacturing industrial sector is in Nuevo León.
With the above, Nuevo León generated more than 84 thousand jobs in 2024, this reflects a competitive and resilient manufacturing.
Vedoya said that this year economic expectations continue to be positive, but in the face of a possible slowdown in the economy that will possibly affect the growth of Nuevo León and Mexico.
He estimated that the economy of Nuevo León will close 2024 with a growth of 2.2 percent and for this 2025 a growth of the state GDP of 1.7 percent, and the generation of 75 thousand new jobs by 2025.
“There is a lot of labor turnover in companies, more technical preparatory schools are needed, it is a unique opportunity that young people in this state have to improve income or standard of living to improve the physical mobility of the state,” he said.
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Édgar Luna, director of the Center for Economic Research (CIE) of the Faculty of Economics of the UANL, foresees for this year a growth of the local economy of two percent and a generation of formal employment of 3.3 percent, while 2024 will close with a growth in employment of four percent.
“We see that the United States economy is slowing down and that will hit Nuevo León because of how linked both economies are.”
“The economy of Nuevo León will begin a phase of deceleration in 2025; in addition, we must wait to see what the Trump factor will be. Inflation will close at a rate of four percent,” added the economist.
For his part, Jorge Moreno, economist of the Faculty of Economics of the UANL, said that 2025 will be a very difficult and complex year for Mexico, given that Donald Trump will assume the presidency of the United States in the midst of a very uncertain international environment.
“There is an uncertain outlook for the elections for the Judicial Branch, what the new presidency of Donald Trump will bring, coupled with insecurity in Mexico, a variable that is beginning to undermine economic activity in the country,” he said.
He pointed out that the end of the year leaves a bad taste because there were great expectations about some reforms made by the federal government and little by little they were diluted.
“In the second half of 2024 we observed the deterioration of these expectations. However, it could have been worse. In Nuevo León, the outlook was favorable more due to its geographical position to attract foreign investment,” he said.
At the local level, he indicated, there is uncertainty about how resources will be allocated in the state and the postponement of some public works, especially in the area of urban transport infrastructure that will boost the attraction of FDI.
“The Government of Nuevo León began with very laudable public policies, but now there is an inability to reach agreements between the Legislative, Executive and mayoral branches, all of which puts what has been achieved at risk.”
“Not being able to consolidate this agenda due to a lack of agreements puts this second part of Samuel García’s Government at risk; at a time in our country where certainty is the most important thing to continue being that destination for FDI,” he concluded.
Source: milenio
