David Saucedo, a Public Security specialist, said that Mexico will have a “very complicated” 2025 due to the civil war within the Sinaloa Cartel, pressure from Washington on the issue of security, narco politics, the penetration of organized crime in governments and narcoterrorism.
These are the main issues that will occupy the Security agenda, he said.
The consultant warned that this year the conflicts in Tabasco, Chiapas, Querétaro, Guanajuato and Michoacán will continue, related to the expansion of the Jalisco Nueva Generación Cartel (CJNG) and the dispute it has on several fronts.
“The conflicts continue in the (states) that are currently experiencing high homicidal violence: Guanajuato, Michoacán, Jalisco, Baja California, Zacatecas. There will surely not be a notable change in this list, but I think that other states will be incorporated where there was no such situation, which would be Querétaro, most likely, Aguascalientes, and perhaps we will see a resurgence of violence in the State of Mexico,” he said.
In the analysis of the panorama in terms of Security, he warned that violence could return to Mexico City.
“I am not sure that this narco peace that was agreed upon in Mexico City can continue with Clara Brugada. We must remember that the strategy of containing violence in Mexico City had to do with Morena’s interest in recovering the mayorships that they had lost in the midterm election and they did well.”
He recalled that Claudia Sheinbaum’s candidacy for the Presidency of the Republic was not viable if she did not manage to raise her approval levels in Mexico City and in turn if they did not manage to recover half of the mayorships of the capital of the country. He said that it will be necessary to see if the containment strategy that was designed for the election can be applied in the long term.
David Saucedo explained that there will surely be an intensification of the civil war within the Sinaloa Cartel, since the federal government’s strategy is not working; the presence of the Secretary of Security and Citizen Protection, Omar García Harfuch, in that entity, does not stop the homicidal violence.
He considered that García Harfuch’s stay is due to marketing lines of containment of public opinion, to maintain a perception that the Federal Government is acting, “but it is not seen that there is a decrease in the confrontation of these groups (cartels).”
Claudia Sheinbaum and the arrival of Donald Trump
In a second point, she highlighted Donald Trump’s threat to declare Mexican cartels as terrorist organizations, which although it seems very distant, is a bargaining chip for Washington to pressure Claudia Sheinbaum and request the extradition of drug traffickers who are in Mexican prisons, reduce fentanyl shipments and the capture of more high-profile drug traffickers.
At the local level in Mexico, we will see if the “Plan to Combat Insecurity” that Sheinbaum prepared can already be implemented, and “which she presented a few weeks ago and which so far we have not seen much, except Swarm.”
She said that apart from ‘Operation Swarm’, “we have not seen anything else, and that is because the Federal Government no longer had a budget this year, because the government of Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) exhausted all the budget items that were there for the administration of justice and the fight against insecurity.”
In this way, what Claudia Sheinbaum did during these three months of government was more of a management of expectations, a damage control, but without a budget to confront drug trafficking groups.
On the other hand, there are organizations in Mexico that continue to permeate the structures of political power as seen in the “Operation Swarm”, in the case of La Familia Michoacana.
Saucedo considered that “narcoterrorism”, that is, attacks by organized crime against the civilian population with the aim of causing terror and inducing authorities in matters of Security to make certain decisions, will surely be occupying the agenda this year.
The analyst highlighted the interest that exists in seeing how the hybrid strategy of the Secretary of Security and Federal Citizen Protection is applied.
David Saucedo recalled that the Government proposed the formation of the National Coordination to Combat Homicide and the National Convention to Combat Extortion, but so far it is not known who will occupy those portfolios, and until then it will be seen what happens.
Source: eluniversal
