Given its importance as a trading partner and its productive integration with the United States, it is unlikely that President-elect Donald Trump will succeed in imposing tariffs on Mexico, said Luis de la Calle, during his participation in the ITAM 2025 Economic Outlook Seminar.
“It seems practically impossible for the United States to impose tariffs only on Mexico and Canada,” said the expert, highlighting that Mexico is currently the main trading partner of the United States, with a market share of 15.7 percent in total US imports.
De la Calle explained that Mexico has managed to offset the current recessionary phase of US industrial production thanks to its growing participation in strategic sectors.
In the automotive sector, Mexico already reaches 40 percent of the US import market, while in medical devices it represents 20 percent and in agricultural products 26 percent.
“Putting a tariff on Mexican vehicles and auto parts when Mexico already accounts for 40 percent seems a bit difficult,” said the specialist, adding that imposing tariffs on medical devices “would make all the operating rooms in the United States and the Medicare and Medicaid budget more expensive.”
Mexico, the only viable substitute for Asia
A relevant finding of the analysis presented is that Mexico is the only country in the Western Hemisphere capable of replacing Asian productive capacity. Through an analysis of the export matrix, De la Calle demonstrated that Mexico has a structure similar to that of the Asian economies, unlike the rest of Latin America, which is concentrated on raw materials and agricultural products.
“The only country in the world in the Western Hemisphere that can replace Asia in terms of its productive capacity is Mexico,” emphasized the expert.
De la Calle stressed that the deep productive integration between Mexico and the United States makes the imposition of tariffs unviable. Unlike countries such as Vietnam or China, Mexico produces jointly with the United States, particularly with the Midwest region.
This reality is reflected in the fact that Mexico is not only an important supplier for the United States, but also a crucial market. In sectors such as the automotive industry, Mexico and Canada account for 65 percent of U.S. exports, while in steel, Mexico absorbs 30 percent of U.S. exports.
“Mexico is larger as a market for the United States, in proportional terms, than as a supplier,” said De la Calle, noting that this interdependence acts as a natural brake on tariff threats.
Source: elfinanciero
