Despite President Donald Trump’s imposition of 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, trade among the three countries is expected to continue growing, experts say.
Trump signed an executive order on Saturday to impose the tariffs on Mexico and Canada, along with an additional 10% tariff on goods from China. Canadian energy imports will only be subject to a 10% tariff.
Jose Minarro, managing director for 3PL Sunset Transportation’s operation in Laredo, Texas, told FreightWaves that the tariff threats have not slowed cross-border trade. “Based on what I see from our own customers, they’re all talking about growth, expansions, and taking on additional markets, or just increasing capacity,” Minarro said. “That is benefiting us because they’re converting all of their manufacturing facilities in Mexico just to produce goods, and they’re using us in Laredo as warehouses for distribution.”
Trade Statistics
From January through November 2024, U.S.-Mexico trade totaled $776.05 billion, a 6% year-over-year increase compared to the same period in 2023. Trade between Canada and the U.S. totaled $699 billion for the first 11 months of 2024, a 2% year-over-year decrease compared to the same period in 2023.
Expert Opinions
Jorge Gonzalez Henrichsen, co-CEO of The Nearshore Co., expressed doubt that Trump’s tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports will remain in place for long. “There is little to gain from tariffs, as neither American companies nor consumers would benefit,” Henrichsen told FreightWaves. “The deep economic ties between Mexico and the U.S. are too strong, and I am confident that decision-makers in Washington understand this reality. My optimism is shared by the companies I work with — none of which have any plans to leave Mexico.”
Minarro advised shippers to consult with their logistics and customs brokerage partners to ensure they have reliable information. “I would strongly recommend talking to their logistics and customs brokerage partners as far as what’s really going on and how to really prepare for potential tariff increases, or any other thing that our two governments are thinking of to make things harder,” he said.
Infrastructure and Communication
Minarro emphasized the need for improved infrastructure and communication to support trade growth among Mexico, Canada, and the U.S. “On the Laredo side, we’re also missing a lot of connectivity and investments, because once those 16,000 to 18,000 tractor-trailers cross the border every day, Laredo is becoming very crowded,” he said. “If they are not investing, it’s going to hurt big time the efficiency of the border.”
Source: Freight Waves
