Mexico started the year with an outflow of foreign capital. According to official data, in January foreign investors sold positions worth 35,139 million pesos in bonds backed by the Mexican government.
According to data from the Bank of Mexico (BdeM), at the close of the last week of January, Mexican government bonds held by foreigners stood at 1 trillion 797 billion pesos, 2 percent down from 1 trillion 832 billion at the end of 2024.
The stumble in foreign capital at the start of the year comes after the balance for the whole of 2024 was positive, with Mexico registering three consecutive years of inflows.
In 2024, despite periods of high uncertainty and volatility, Mexican debt held by foreign investors increased by 41,143 million pesos, while in 2023 the increase was 81,956 million pesos and in 2022 it was 73,529 million pesos.
The capital outflow recorded in January occurs in a context of high uncertainty and volatility, marked by the inauguration of Donald Trump as president of the United States, who since he was a candidate threatened Mexico on several occasions with imposing large tariffs in retaliation for undocumented migration and drug trafficking, specifically fentanyl.
Our current scenario considers high uncertainty in the face of the risk of the imposition of tariffs, which leads to an expectation of low investment and weak economic growth. The increase in tension in the relationship between Mexico and the United States due to the security and migration issues mentioned above contributes to this situation, Banamex said on the day that Trump became president of the United States for the second time.
Cetes continue to rise
The greatest impact was reflected in the debt instrument most requested by foreign investors: Bonds, which registered an outflow of 31,821 million pesos, going from one trillion 432 thousand 255 million pesos at the end of 2024 to one trillion 400 thousand 434 million pesos on the last day of January.
The second favorite instrument of foreign residents is the Federal Treasury Certificates (Cetes), which at the end of January stood at 226,316 million pesos, which implied an increase of 5,728 million pesos compared to 220,588 million pesos.
Cetes are the oldest debt instruments issued by the federal government. Following the record level of 11.25 percent, a historic rate, the certificates attracted both local and foreign investors.
According to CI Banco analysts, for a couple of years Cetes have paid a high return, several percentage points above inflation and with zero risk of volatility, which represents a significant advantage for a conservative investor, that is, one who wants to keep his money with a certain security.
Source: jornada
