In just three weeks, Mexico will once again enter electoral times, but this time with a very peculiar process. We will not see the typical partisan advertisements saturating the television nor the avenues covered with banners of smiling candidates.
On this occasion, the electoral process will be discreet, but very important: the election of ministers, magistrates and judges who will make up the renewed Judicial Power.
From the capital’s Zócalo, President Claudia Sheinbaum will put the same issue on the table today, probably updating figures on candidates, vacant positions and reaffirming her position on the advantages of this novel selection method.
However, there is great skepticism about citizen participation due to the limited dissemination of the process, the complexity of understanding a new mechanism, and ballots that will be full of names that will be practically unknown to most voters.
The most recent survey published by El Financiero revealed a disturbing fact: 55% of Mexicans are completely unaware or have only a vague idea about how this judicial election will work. Given this uncertainty, low citizen participation is expected and a high dependence on the mobilization of political parties, especially Morena and its allies, who could guide and mobilize the vote through organized structures.
This possibility of partisan interference has raised red flags in the business sector and investors, who see this factor as a clear threat to judicial independence.
In fact, companies are already taking preventive measures in the face of uncertainty. As an early response to a potentially politically compromised Judiciary, many companies plan to rely on the recently approved General Law of Alternative Dispute Resolution Mechanisms, in force since January of last year, which contemplates methods such as mediation and private arbitration to resolve commercial or other disputes.
This legislation offers modern options such as decentralized electronic dispute resolution, an automated procedure that allows managing differences through digital systems, avoiding the direct intervention of traditional courts.
In addition, larger companies will probably resort to international jurisdictions or foreign arbitration to protect the validity and legal security of their contracts. This has prompted law firms and specialized advisors to intensify their services and recommendations towards this type of mechanism.
The uncertainty about the outcome of this unprecedented judicial reform is already beginning to be felt in the corridors of the private sector. Businessmen and economic analysts agree that the most worrying factor is the possible loss of judicial independence, which could lead to a less reliable system subject to external pressures.
In this context, various economic sectors have warned that the legal uncertainty derived from this election could translate into less national and foreign investment during this first year of the government headed by Claudia Sheinbaum. This is already happening.
The fall in gross fixed investment in the last quarter of last year, 3.2 percent on average at an annual rate, was the largest since the first quarter of 2021, when it fell 4.4 percent.
If this behavior worsens, we could face a difficult year with a significant economic slowdown.
For now, Mexico is going through uncharted territory. It is still early to define precisely to what extent the judicial reform will influence the country’s economic activity. However, it is clear that the uncertainty surrounding this electoral process is added to other economic risk factors, such as the issue of tariffs, causing various investment projects to be put on hold, despite the announcements made by various companies at the morning conference.
Will this reform succeed in providing, as its promoters argue, greater justice and impartiality to the Mexican judicial system, or on the contrary, will it deepen distrust and further alienate investors?
Source: elfinanciero
