Sonora is one of the states with the greatest potential to attract Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). An ambitious plan was announced in 2023 to achieve this goal. However, figures show that, far from achieving positive results, the capture of these resources fell dramatically over the last year.
According to data from the Ministry of Economy, Sonora captured only $305 million in FDI during 2024. This figure represented an 88.7% drop compared to the $2.712 billion recorded in 2023.
In 2023, Governor Alfonso Durazo presented the “Sonora Plan,” which includes the largest photovoltaic plant in Latin America, with the projection of five more plants, as well as a natural gas liquefaction plant and the development of lithium.
The governor emphasized that thanks to the “Sonora Plan,” the state reached second place in the nation in FDI that year, for the first time in its history, according to official figures.
However, the situation changed radically in 2024. Sonora was the state with the second-largest drop in foreign investment, behind only Guerrero, which registered a 128% drop due to the adjustment between positive and negative flows.
Of the $305 million raised by Sonora, $170 million came from reinvestments, $87 million from transfers between companies, and only $48 million from new investments.
The United States dominated foreign investment in Sonora with 69.5% of the total. The manufacturing sector absorbed the majority of the capital, particularly in the beverage and tobacco industries, and the manufacturing of computer equipment, electrical appliances, and power generation equipment.
Investments are declining
Until recently, Sonora was considered one of the most attractive destinations for business relocation, leading the state government to anticipate large investments. According to data from the Ministry of Economy, between January 2023 and September 2024, Sonora accumulated investment announcements totaling $16.164 billion. This amount was led by the natural gas liquefaction plant of Mexico Pacific Limited, a US company that as of last year still had firm plans.
Ramses Pech, energy and economic analyst at Caraiva y Asociados-León & Pech, warns that projects like this could remain unfinished due to the political return of Donald Trump, whose administration is once again promoting fossil fuels.
“I believe that all the liquefied natural gas-related projects planned for Mexico will not materialize. Everything will remain in the United States due to the recent energy policy announced by Trump, who declared an energy emergency,” explains Pech, who warns that Sonora will no longer see significant FDI inflows.
Another factor that casts doubt on the scope of the Sonora Plan is the approval of the energy reform, which favors CFE and Pemex, a situation that keeps investors cautious, primarily in clean energy.
The Mexican Institute for Competitiveness (IMCO) indicates that the Sonora Plan seeks to attract $48 billion in investments for solar photovoltaic and wind energy between 2023 and 2030. However, clear details about this project, as well as a critical path defining its implementation, are still lacking. The credibility of the commitment is questionable due to the Mexican government’s recent efforts to limit private participation.
Regarding lithium exploitation, there has been no progress. Expansión reported that the state agency LitioMx, created in 2022 by the federal government to manage this resource, lacks significant results.
According to the Federal Expenditure Budget Project (PPEF) for 2025, LitioMx received 12.9 million pesos, a 31.6% increase compared to the previous year. However, these funds are allocated primarily to administrative expenses, without considering technical or exploration operations, which prevents tangible progress in lithium exploitation.
Adding to this is the problem of insecurity. Sonora business leaders, including the National Chamber of Small Commerce and Tourism Services, warn that this factor is driving investment away from the state.
Data from INEGI show that Sonora recorded the highest rate of crimes against businesses in the country in 2023. Per 10,000 economic units, there were 3,728 incidents, with extortion being the predominant factor.
Meanwhile, Sonora’s governor, Alfonso Durazo, continues to promote Plan Sonora abroad. His most recent visit was to Sacramento, California.
Source: expansion
