Mexico’s economy will show no growth in 2025, slowing from the estimated 1.5 percent growth it saw in 2024, according to the World Bank. The country is ranked second in Latin America and the Caribbean with a flat economy, only better off than Haiti, where a GDP contraction is anticipated.
Mexico’s GDP is estimated to show a variation of 0.0 percent in 2025, 1.1 percent in 2026, and 1.8 percent in 2027, according to data published in the advanced version of the report “Organized Crime and Violence in Latin America and the Caribbean,” to be released next Monday, April 28.
Except for Haiti, which is expected to contract by 2.2 percent, Mexico is the country with the least promising forecasts.
The United States’ shift toward a tariff policy “casts uncertainty on the nearshoring project in Latin America and the Caribbean and access to global markets in general, while the other main LAC market, China, continues to show anemic growth,” the article explains.
On the other hand, higher tariffs and the highest levels of trade uncertainty in a decade impede greater integration of the region into US supply chains, in addition to jeopardizing jobs in export-related industries, the World Bank believes.
It recognizes that the agreements recently signed by Mexico and Mercosur with the European Union represent a step toward market diversification and a relatively open stance toward global markets.
“However, new challenges require addressing a decades-long pending agenda in the areas of infrastructure, education, regulation, competition, and tax policy to increase both productivity and the adaptability of the region’s economies in the face of new uncertainty,” it warned.
Given a shift in perceptions of the global economic direction, inflation in advanced countries is now expected to persist, delaying further interest rate cuts and limiting the scope for central banks in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) to further ease monetary policy.
The organization anticipates the possibility that increased return migration from the United States could put pressure on some local labor markets and resources allocated to migrant reintegration, while simultaneously reducing remittances.
“The world order is likely to be in a state of flux for some time to come,” it concluded.
Source: elfinanciero
