While states in southern and southeastern Mexico face rain, showers, and thunderstorms this weekend, Baja California Sur will experience hot weather.
An anticyclonic circulation in the mid-levels of the atmosphere dominates the northern part of the country, guaranteeing dry conditions for the state’s five municipalities on Saturday, March 21, and Sunday, March 22, 2026, with temperatures exceeding 30 degrees Celsius in most locations and reaching up to 39 degrees Celsius in Comondú.
According to forecasts from the National Meteorological Service (SMN), part of the National Water Commission (Conagua), Baja California Sur is under the influence of this high-pressure system, which inhibits cloud formation and precipitation in the state.
The federal agency published its 48-hour weather bulletin on Saturday, detailing the expected conditions for each region of the country. For Baja California Sur, the document states: “An anticyclonic circulation in the mid-levels of the atmosphere will maintain dry and stable conditions in the northern part of the country.”
The highest temperatures will be recorded in the municipality of Comondú: 35 degrees Celsius this Saturday and up to 39 degrees Celsius on Sunday, with west winds gusting up to 31 kilometers per hour today and south winds gusting up to 23 km/h tomorrow.
In La Paz, the high will reach 34 degrees Celsius this Saturday and drop to 32 degrees Celsius on Sunday, with south winds gusting up to 38 km/h on both days, representing the highest gust value among the municipalities in the state for Sunday.
This weather activity, which includes heavy rainfall in Guerrero and Oaxaca of between 25 and 50 millimeters, will not reach the Baja California peninsula, which is outside the area of influence of these systems. However, the bulletin does place Baja California Sur within the areas with winds of 20 to 30 km/h and gusts of 40 to 60 km/h this Saturday, which could create uncomfortable conditions for outdoor activities, although without a risk of precipitation.
By municipality, the forecast for this weekend is as follows: Los Cabos will have clear skies with a high of 30 degrees Celsius on Saturday and 28 on Sunday, with lows of 19 and 18 degrees Celsius respectively; the wind will shift from northeast today to south tomorrow, with gusts up to 25 km/h. Loreto will have a high of 29 degrees Celsius this Saturday and 27 on Sunday, with southeast winds and gusts reaching 31 km/h on Sunday.
Mulegé is shaping up to be the municipality with the calmest wind conditions: gusts will not exceed 12 km/h today or 11 km/h tomorrow, with clear skies and temperatures between 22 and 30 degrees Celsius on Saturday and between 19 and 28 degrees Celsius on Sunday. In all cases, the probability of rain is zero percent, and no accumulated precipitation is expected.
For the coming days, the National Meteorological Service (SMN) anticipates that the anticyclonic circulation will move toward the southwest and south of the United States starting Sunday, which could gradually modify conditions in northern Mexico.
In the case of Baja California Sur, the available forecasts from the European ECMWF model for the period of March 20-25 show no significant accumulated precipitation in the state, with values not exceeding the 5-millimeter threshold anywhere in the territory. On Monday, a new cold front will approach the northern border of Mexico, bringing strong winds and a drop in temperatures to that region.
Source: oem
