What you will read below is part of a report contained in an analysis that the Congressional Research Service of the United States (CRS) has just presented in Washington D.C.
The first thing that must be said about the expectations of the United States with the new Mexican government, which will be headed by Dr. Claudia Sheinbaum, is that for the government in Washington and for the Americans, Mexico continues to be a very important partner.
The question frankly is whether Mexico, with its new government, also has the intentions… “to continue being an important ally of the United States.”
On the surface, people in Mexico read what appears in the press about this relationship. They also see many “analysts” on social media who, with a total lack of knowledge, but with a lot of imagination, interpret the actions of the United States using the same optics that they have in Mexico. The result is an absolute lack of reality that unfortunately many Mexicans believe.
In the United States, the analyses are more careful in the press, but they are not exempt from exaggerations and misinterpretations. The proof is at hand. For example, check out the predictions made in 2018 about President López Obrador and what his six years in office would be like. Today, with the advantage of having lived through those six years, we know that most of those analyses were wrong.
In 2024, what is said is that President Sheinbaum will inherit a worn-out relationship with her northern neighbor, but that cannot lead her to ignore that wear and tear.
One wonders, too, if the new Mexican administration understands that this relationship can help achieve success in many of the highest objectives it has set.
The relationship between the United States and Mexico, in recent years, has hidden on the surface a reality that is not positive for either partner.
American diplomats say:
“… The dialogue between the United States and Mexico has become a kind of Kabuki theater, with high-level leaders who profess great satisfaction in public, but who, operationally, continue to fail to cooperate closely.”
As a result, there is now enormous frustration on both sides.
Mexican officials make a big show of mutual cooperation, while their counterparts complain that such cooperation, in daily reality, is not efficient and only serves as a screen.
Meanwhile in Mexico, many people in the so-called middle classes and elites are frustrated because they have the impression that the United States has remained silent while the outgoing government attacked independent institutions such as the INE and others, and harassed the press to consolidate power in the hands of an increasingly powerful presidency… all of this happening in a country that six years ago elected President López Obrador, so that he would take away the power and authoritarianism of the presidency.
Precisely because of all this and the enormous importance that the US Congress grants to our country, the Research Service of the Congress itself was commissioned to issue an analysis about what the United States should expect from the new Mexican government.
These analyses are made with enormous discipline. By the nature of the documents, they have to be devoid of ideological inclinations and also of imagination. They have to reflect reality, period.
In this document that has just been issued, there are many things that are said very frankly.
It says, for example, that in the US, in the government, in Congress and with great force in the private sector, there are still serious concerns about the laws and constitutional reforms recently approved in Mexico. There is a fear, frankly, that this will drastically reduce the confidence of US investors and companies, which have already set up shop in Mexico, and that this will increase the distension, which continues to prevail more and more in the bilateral relationship.
Although, something that should be emphasized is that the congressional document also states that the signals coming directly from President-elect Sheinbaum are that her intention is to continue working with the United States in all areas, even the most difficult ones.
And although the election of the next president in the United States is still to be decided, the Congressional Research Service devotes a good part of its report to the meetings that have taken place between Dr. Sheinbaum and the vice president, Kamala Harris. In those meetings, the report says, there have been coincidences of purposes.
The Big Question in Washington: To what extent will President Sheinbaum maintain López Obrador’s policies?
There is a sense in Washington that the biggest challenge for Dr. Sheinbaum is to continue the Fourth Transformation while allowing for “… a greater level of transparency and genuine openness in the bilateral relationship, especially on those difficult issues such as: security, democracy, civil liberties, trade, migration and combating Mexican drug trafficking.”
Sheinbaum is inheriting a frayed relationship with the United States
There will be new operators in the foreign relations of the new Mexican government. That is important, because given the uncontrolled violence and the increasing presence of organized crime in Mexico, security is a pressing need for both Mexico and the United States.
The report to Congress on the new Mexican government states:
“… Sheinbaum has placed key allies in public security and energy positions, and this suggests that she plans changes in public policies in those areas.”
Observers in the US say that Sheinbaum’s reported pragmatism as mayor of Mexico’s largest city, her scientific background as an engineer, and her previous work in climate change mitigation could lead her to disagree with López Obrador on some issues in the future.
For example, Sheinbaum plans to focus on developing renewable energy sources with the private sector. That would change the Mexican government’s centrism to only put its state-owned companies at the forefront of the future of hydrocarbons and energy. This last chapter was never resolved under her predecessor.
This will surely take a more solution-oriented direction, because President Joe Biden’s appeasement policies will disappear with whoever assumes the US presidency on January 20.
Sheinbaum, the report says, “… postponed consideration of the electoral reforms proposed by López Obrador, supposedly to present her own.”
So, at this point the report concludes, “…The United States should take the opportunity to reach out to President-elect Sheinbaum and offer to rekindle strong U.S.-Mexico cooperation.”
“…This could be a good time to strengthen and expand the relationship on security and counternarcotics, as was attempted during the initial period of the Merida Initiative.”
“…Mexico would benefit from a new relationship that strengthens a more solid articulation in security and intelligence institutions.”
“…At the same time, the two governments can channel security assistance to strengthen judicial and police institutions in Mexico, which would more effectively confront violence. The intention is to offer assistance to combat corruption and promote transparency.”
Sheinbaum’s engineering approach to problem solving, as demonstrated while mayor, could finally, after decades, lead to a solid foundation for Mexico’s judicial and security institutions.
Again, the report concludes that… “This would lead to the continuity and permanence of the security society.” There is much attention to see if the president breaks this time, with the destructive and counterproductive reassembly of the judicial and security institutions, which the two countries have seen happen with each Mexican presidential change every six years.
To close
For the United States, President Sheinbaum is frankly still a big question mark.
In Washington they wonder… “Yes, she will be willing to compromise with the radical wing of Morena so that it puts aside its nationalist stance and accepts, at least in the internal dialogue between the two countries, cooperation against cross-border crime.”
The purpose would be for Mexico and the United States to simply commit to working together, because there is no doubt that they need each other and will continue to need each other.
On the other hand, what is certain is that with the upcoming composition of Congress in Washington, the next US government will be under great pressure to confront the violence and chaos that criminal organizations have caused in both societies beyond their borders.
That will require commitments from both sides, and that is very important because that is, in fact, what the United States will be expecting from the new president of Mexico.
Source: eleconomista
