The return to the White House of former US President Donald Trump (2017-2021) is a realistic and disturbing possibility for the new Government of Claudia Sheinbaum, especially after the Republican has suggested renegotiating the USMCA free trade agreement.
Americans will choose on November 5 between a continuing administration led by the Democratic vice president, Kamala Harris, and the political return of Trump, who has coined strong protectionist and anti-immigrant rhetoric.
In his first term, the New York magnate forced the replacement of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) with the current Agreement between Mexico, the United States and Canada (TMEC) and last week he revealed his intention to activate the review of the agreement in 2026.
Sheinbaum, who succeeded her mentor, the leftist Andrés Manuel López Obrador, as president on October 1, attributed that comment to “stridency” typical of an electoral campaign and was convinced that she could reach agreements with either Trump or Harris.
But for Martha Bárcena, former ambassador of the López Obrador Government during Trump’s term (2018-2021), the Republican’s reelection “would present greater challenges for Mexico because his positions are more extreme” and his negotiating style usually seeks to have “a clear winner and a clear loser.”
In 2023, Mexico became the United States’ largest trading partner, surpassing China, which explains the importance of the USMCA for both countries.
A review of the treaty, or even a deeper renegotiation, would be a crucial test of the relationship between Washington and Mexico City, which is experiencing new turbulence due to the Mexican judicial reform, which stipulates the popular election of judges and has worried American businessmen.
A new Republican administration would focus on curbing growing Chinese investment in some sectors of Mexico, such as the automotive sector, predicts Christopher Landau, former ambassador of the Trump government in Mexico (2019-2021).
The United States “cannot allow China to take advantage of the free market in North America,” the diplomat tells EFE.
Beyond the USMCA, Trump has focused his campaign above all on a harsh speech against migration.
Trump’s return to the White House represents a worrying scenario for the Sheinbaum administration in Mexico
The Republican, who in 2019 threatened Mexico with tariffs if it did not stop migratory flows, promises to resume construction of the border wall, carry out mass raids and deportations, and reinstate the ‘Remain in Mexico’ program so that asylum seekers can wait on the Mexican side of the border.
Landau agrees that it is urgent to change border policy and believes that it would be the priority issue of a second Trump term above any other: “We cannot talk about redecorating the living room when we have a fire in the kitchen,” he exemplifies.
During Joe Biden’s Administration, border crossings have increased, reaching their peak with more than two million in 2023, although in recent months the arrival of migrants has been reduced due to new restrictions on asylum applications.
For Bárcena, the Republicans “do not understand the need that the American economy has for migrants” and, although she believes that Trump could not implement many of his proposals, it would cause a “feeling of uncertainty” in the foreign community.
The proliferation of fentanyl trafficking has also caused a hardening of the Republicans’ discourse on security, with some calling for the United States to bomb the cartels on Mexican territory, an insurmountable red line for the Latin American country.
Mexico insists that the United States must address the internal problem of drug use and also stop the trafficking of American weapons that end up in the hands of drug traffickers.
During Trump’s term, the two countries were able to overcome some obstacles thanks to the good personal harmony that the Republican and López Obrador forged against all odds.
Both connected because they shared a critical character with traditional politicians, recalls Landau, who believes that the relationship with Sheinbaum could also be good because it “suits” both countries.
Bárcena, however, has doubts that Trump would respect Mexico’s first female president: “His relationship with female leaders was never exemplary.”
Source: forbes
