The Mexican population will face challenges in 2025 such as the first popular election of the Judiciary, the return of Donald Trump to the White House and the revision of the Treaty between Mexico, the United States and Canada (T-MEC).
These are the 10 events to watch in the country this year.
- The first judicial election
On June 1, for the first time, Mexicans will elect at the polls, by popular vote, the judges, magistrates, the Supreme Court, the Electoral Tribunal of the Judicial Branch of the Federation (TEPJF) and the new Judicial Disciplinary Tribunal after the controversial constitutional reform enacted last September.
Despite the significance, the National Electoral Institute (INE) has not yet fully defined the rules or the ballot, while the Government refuses to give it more budget, and civil organizations warn of the possible interference of the Executive and organized crime in the elections.
- The uncertainty of the Trump effect
Mexico will suffer a period of economic and social uncertainty due to Trump’s inauguration on January 20 in the United States.
The next president has threatened to impose 25 percent tariffs on all Mexican products if Mexico does not stop the “invasion” of migrants and drugs, particularly fentanyl.
- Trade tension with Canada
Mexico will host the ‘CEO Dialogue’ with Canada on January 15, when President Claudia Sheinbaum will receive executives from Canadian companies amid trade tensions in North America.
The meeting will occur amid criticism from Canadian politicians, including Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, that they are willing to remove Mexico from the T-MEC in the face of Trump’s tariff threats and Chinese imports into the Latin American country.
- The review of the USMCA
Officials and businessmen will undertake a plan this year to address the review of the USMCA, signed in 2020 during the first presidency of Trump, who has warned of a possible renegotiation of the trade agreement in 2026.
- Record migration through Mexico
In light of Trump’s arrival, the Mexican government has argued that the daily encounter of undocumented immigrants at the United States border has decreased by 75 percent since December 2023, but the Mexican government detected a record of more than 925 thousand irregular migrants from January to August last year, a year-on-year increase of almost 132 percent.
The president of Mexico has promised that migrants will no longer reach the northern border, so civil organizations warn of an increase in restrictions for those who transit through the country.
- Trump’s mass deportations
The country is concerned about the mass deportations promised by Trump because nearly half of the 11 million undocumented immigrants in the United States are Mexican and almost 4 percent of Mexico’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is represented by their remittances, which in 2024 would have reached an estimated record of 65 billion dollars.
Sheinbaum, who has promised to be ready to receive the Mexicans, reiterated last week “the insistence to the United States that repatriation be done to the different countries of origin,” instead of expelling them all to Mexico, which is already in talks with other nations to receive their deportees directly.
- Drug violence in Sinaloa
Sheinbaum’s security strategy will be put to the test in Sinaloa, a state in the northwest of the country that has accumulated almost 600 murders due to the fight between its namesake cartel that broke out on September 9 after the capture on July 25 in the United States of Ismael ‘El Mayo’ Zambada and Joaquín Guzmán López, son of Chapo Guzmán.
- Containment of homicides
In addition, Mexico added 27,794 intentional homicides in the first 11 months of 2024, which accumulates a year-on-year increase of 1.47 percent, according to data from the Executive Secretariat of the National Public Security System (SESNSP), so the fight against violence, the main citizen concern, has stagnated.
- The country’s predicted economic slowdown
In November, Moody’s cut Mexico’s GDP growth forecast for 2025 in half to 0.6 percent in response to Trump’s policies, although the government is defending an official projection of 2.5 percent after the accumulated increase of 1.8 percent in the first three quarters of 2024.
International organizations agree that Mexico would have its lowest growth in 2025 since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasting 1.3 percent and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) 1.2 percent.
- The 700 years of Tenochtitlán and the insistence on Spain
The president announced in December that she will insist that Spain ask for forgiveness for the abuses of the conquest in 2025, when the 700th anniversary of the founding of Tenochtitlán, the ancient city of the Aztec empire, will be commemorated.
Source: lopezdoriga
