The Washington Office on Latin American Affairs (WOLA) warns in an analysis of the effects that Donald Trump’s arrival at the White House will have on the region, and that in order to effectively combat the problem of organized crime, Mexico must reduce the impunity and corruption that foster alliances between cartels and state officials.
“Instead of focusing on the application of anti-drug laws and interdictions, effectively addressing crime in Mexico requires reducing impunity and corruption,” says the NGO promoting human rights in the Americas in the document “What does a second Trump administration imply for Latin America?”
WOLA’s director for Mexico, Stephanie Brewer, tells Proceso that the analysis is based on the fact that if Mexico had a more effective response to impunity and corruption, it could show more positive results in the fight against crime and, to that extent, it could “better defend itself” from Trump’s policies and threats.
On Monday, on his first day as president of the United States, Trump signed an executive order classifying Mexican drug cartels and criminal groups in the region as terrorist organizations, considered a “threat to the security of the American people, the security of the United States, and the stability of the international order in the Western Hemisphere.”
Several institutions, agencies, and officials of the Trump administration have 14 days from the signing of the decree to determine which criminal organizations will be considered terrorists and, therefore, may be unilaterally attacked by the United States in any country.
Brewer explains that these types of threats and actions by Trump also constitute very powerful messages for his ultraconservative bases because they show the Republican magnate as a tough man against crime, who is willing to solve security messages by force.
“These policies are not based on evidence, but on a populist logic because the forceful measures have been in place for years and have not solved the problem nor are they going to solve it,” says the WOLA director for Mexico.
The human rights activist and expert on Mexico-US relations argues that even if Mexico did not have the levels of extreme violence that several regions of the country present, it is most likely that Trump would still resort to threats and heavy-handed rhetoric, since that is the rhetoric that brings him political dividends in a country where tens of thousands of people die every year from overdoses of fentanyl, an illicit substance produced and trafficked by Mexican cartels, but which is also distributed massively in large US cities due to the ineffectiveness of the police and agencies such as the DEA.
Time of turbulence
For WOLA, Trump’s return to the presidency of the United States places Latin America before a “transformative and turbulent period in its relations with its northern neighbor.”
Trump’s first term (2017-2021) “was defined by transactional negotiations, economic pressure tactics, and the marginalization of human rights issues in favor of short-term political gains, a pattern that could intensify in his second term,” the Washington-based NGO said.
In its analysis, the organization indicates that Trump’s nominations, including Marco Rubio as Secretary of State, Christopher Landau as Deputy Secretary of State, and the rapid nominations of ambassadors in several Latin American countries, such as Mexico, indicate that the region “will be a greater priority in U.S. foreign policy, especially in relation to migration and illicit drugs.”
It also warns that Trump’s growing alignment with populist, often authoritarian leaders in the region, such as Javier Milei of Argentina, Nayib Bukele of El Salvador, and the Bolsonaro family in Brazil, “could strengthen anti-democratic actors and threaten the region’s democratic institutions, civil liberties, citizen security, and the protection of human rights.”
In this second administration of the Republican billionaire, WOLA anticipates “significant setbacks in terms of democratic norms, civic space, protection of human rights, judicial independence, inclusion and diversity initiatives, and the response to the climate crisis.”
Militarized drug control strategies and restrictive immigration policies will also be prioritized, along with a preference for transactional diplomacy, which implies the risk of “further consolidating authoritarianism, putting civil society actors, human rights defenders and reformist government personnel under greater threat,” the document adds.
The mayor of Coalcomán thanking the CJNG. Photo: Special
According to the organization, as democratic norms and institutions are increasingly under attack and commitments to diversity and inclusion weaken, it will be increasingly important to foster solidarity and coordination among civil society actors in the region and the world.
“This will be essential to counteract the erosion of democratic freedoms, protect human rights and the rule of law,” it adds.
Risk Agenda
Among the key areas to observe and possible response measures to address these risks, WOLA identifies migration and the fight against crime as critical issues.
Trump’s focus on mass deportation, likely using military personnel, unprecedented in modern U.S. history, could expel millions of people through raids, internment in camps, and large-scale deportations.
He notes that a renewed “Remain in Mexico” program could send tens of thousands of asylum seekers to await their processing on national territory, “if the Mexican government is forced to accept it,” and this will lead to organizations that defend migrants facing “coordinated legal attacks.”
Regarding Venezuela, he indicates that Trump has already referred to the opposition leader Edmundo González Urrutia as president-elect of that country and highlighted the support he received from the Venezuelan community in the United States.
In addition, Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasized during his confirmation hearing in Congress that the country is controlled by a criminal and drug trafficking organization; The US President Donald Trump criticized the Biden administration for being “manipulated into easing sanctions and providing millions of dollars to Nicolás Maduro” via oil licenses, and highlighted the significant geopolitical risks involved in Venezuela’s dealings with countries such as Russia and Iran.
According to WOLA, although it seems unlikely that diplomatic relations between the United States and Venezuela will be restored, Trump faces complex dilemmas that could open the door to a transactional approach between the two governments with a view, for example, to Maduro receiving thousands of Venezuelans that the new administration plans to deport.
“These overlapping interests, despite ideological differences and incendiary narratives, could signal a change from the maximum pressure tactics of his first term, with economic pragmatism taking center stage,” the analysis says.
And it adds that recent comments by Trump’s senior adviser, Tom Homan, indicate that Trump is expected to “work with Venezuela” to receive these deportation flights. This view, however, is at odds with that of Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who is inclined to toughen Washington’s position against the Maduro regime.
WOLA notes that Trump will have, for at least the next two years, a Republican-controlled Congress, which will allow him to push through several of his priorities, particularly his restrictive migration agenda, “and realign, if not reduce, areas of U.S. assistance, focusing on security-related aid.”
Latin America “faces the prospect of deeper authoritarianism, growing human rights challenges, and a further erosion of democratic principles, with many leaders likely to find in the new U.S. administration an ally for their conservative agendas.”
The international community, along with Latin American civil society, WOLA argues, must prepare for these challenges and work together.
Source: proceso
