Even in a country as accustomed to violence as Mexico, some atrocious acts can still shake society. The murder of two close associates of Mexico City Mayor Clara Brugada last week was one of them.
The shocking murders that occurred during the morning commute on one of the city’s busiest avenues were intended to achieve maximum political impact. Authorities have been careful not to air any speculation about who is responsible. But the attack makes it abundantly clear that Claudia Sheinbaum has little room to continue downplaying the security challenge facing Mexico.
Mexico’s first female president has made progress in the fight against drug violence since taking office in October. Her decision to empower her Secretary of Security, Omar García Harfuch—the city’s former police chief, who was the target of a failed assassination attempt in 2020—to combat organized crime has yielded positive results: the daily average of intentional homicides decreased by about 25 percent, according to official figures; several high-profile officers have been arrested or killed; and some high-value fentanyl seizures have occurred. In February, the government transferred 29 drug lords to the United States for prosecution. Polls show growing public approval of Sheinbaum’s security policies.
However, that is not enough. The government has focused on trying to control the problem and reverse the negative trend of recent years, rather than addressing the threat of insecurity head-on with a comprehensive plan to truly change Mexico’s state of lawlessness.
It’s understandable: Sheinbaum’s predecessor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, described his containment strategy as “hugs, not bullets” in an explicit call to avoid repression, an ethos of his administration. One might say he was naive or even cynical, but by ignoring a problem he believed he could not solve, López Obrador weathered his six years in power relatively unscathed. Memories of President Felipe Calderón’s disastrous war on drugs, when the Mexican state deployed the army to wage a frontal battle against drug trafficking, were still fresh.
Unfortunately for Sheinbaum, the scale of criminal penetration in the country is such that she cannot afford to take a piecemeal approach. Forced by continued political violence, pressure from the US government, and growing popular demand, Sheinbaum must address the insecurity problem that López Obrador left unresolved. In fact, the cowardly murders of Ximena Guzmán and José Muñoz, even if they are only the result of local underworld disputes, demonstrate that organized crime cannot be combated without paying a political cost due to the inevitable backlash.
“These murders are symbolic and show the huge problem Mexico faces. We are likely witnessing the beginning of more violence,” Daniel Linsker, director of the security consultancy Control Risks in Mexico, told me. The government’s strategy is changing, and that will always generate resistance, both from criminal groups and from insiders who benefited from previous regulations.
Enter Donald Trump
Since returning to power, the US president has adopted a more aggressive stance toward Mexican cartels, considering the possibility of military operations or drone strikes inside the Latin American country. The White House has designated six Mexican cartels as terrorist organizations, increased surveillance, and canceled the US visas of some Mexican politicians, including the governor of Baja California, a neighboring state. The attorney general’s office is also negotiating plea deals with some of the most hardened drug traffickers in US custody.
The Mexican government’s reaction has been measured. The Wall Street Journal reported earlier this month that a phone call between the two leaders ended amid tensions when the US president insisted on a leading role for the US military in the fight against drug trafficking. However, despite their sharply opposing political styles and ideologies, there is an opportunity for Sheinbaum and Trump to cooperate on the drug trafficking problem. Mexico needs the United States to resolve its internal violence, and likewise, the United States crucially needs Mexico to reduce the flow of illegal drugs and the underground economy it fuels.
For that to happen, both countries must establish and respect their own limits: the Mexican government must be honest about the indispensable logistical, intelligence, and military support the United States provides to confront groups that control significant portions of the country and possess sophisticated weapons and defense systems. Sheinbaum should allow Washington to play bad cop against some of the unsavory political and business figures that populate Mexico, including within her own political movement.
Meanwhile, the United States must understand that it is part of the problem: the insatiable American demand for narcotics and the supply of advanced weapons from U.S. manufacturers are key factors in this tragedy. Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged last week that the cartels are armed by U.S. arms manufacturers, a point Mexico has been making for years. “We want to help stem that flow,” Rubio said. “We have a mutual interest in Mexico.” That’s encouraging.
And then there’s the thorny issue of territorial sovereignty: despite the economic integration between the two countries, full authority over its territory is paramount for Mexico. Given the history of bilateral relations, no Mexican president would unilaterally accept the presence of US military troops on the ground. The United States might think it’s just trying to help by sending a former Green Beret as ambassador, but in leftist circles close to the nationalist ruling party, this is considered “imperial arrogance.” Mexican nationalism is still prevalent: a recent poll showed that more than 53 percent of Mexicans have a negative image of the United States, and that figure rises to 84 percent when asked specifically about Trump.
All of this leaves Sheinbaum with little room for maneuver. The US-Mexico relationship is already one of the most complex and challenging diplomatic ties in the world. This is even more serious now with Trump’s promise to eliminate the cartels. While the White House would ideally acknowledge Sheinbaum’s domestic political limitations, the Mexican government must take Trump’s threats seriously, as it is only a matter of time before he takes more forceful action. Mexico’s unwavering president faces crucial decisions, caught between an aggressive White House and a nationalist party that resents any hint of imperialism. However, she plays the hard card well, tirelessly focusing on improving Mexico’s security conditions.
Source: elfinanciero
