Given the complex economic scenario, the commercial sector projects a slower growth rate this year, according to projections from the Querétaro Chamber of Commerce.
The president of the chamber, René Loya Poletti, estimated that local commercial growth will be between 4 and 6% in 2025, a range that would be two percentage points lower than in 2024.
However, he has positive expectations for the fourth quarter, as this is the peak season for consumer spending.
Throughout 2025, this economic activity has experienced the knock-on effects caused by the uncertainty surrounding the United States’ trade policy with Mexico; they also perceived a lower flow of funds for federal infrastructure projects.
“One of the problems was the entire issue with the United States, which halted large investments, and that is a drain on all small and medium-sized businesses. The other is that the entire federal issue is halted; large projects stopped releasing resources. In this last semester, construction and transportation have come to a standstill, and those are two very large sectors, commercially speaking,” he explained.
This context influenced clients of commercial businesses to extend payment periods for their orders, which generated low liquidity and put pressure on the flow of resources.
The president of the chamber added that companies continued operating despite the lack of liquidity and tried to maintain their workforces.
In some cases, business owners opted to apply for loans through banks or savings banks; therefore, the chamber signed a collaboration agreement with a savings bank to provide loans of 50,000 pesos or less to members who required them.
Since the end of September, the sector has seen an improvement, and some payments have begun to regularize.
“There are still companies that are up to six months behind on payments from their clients. They stop paying you, and you stop paying. Things are starting to normalize now, but that issue is not 100% normalized yet,” he noted.
In the first quarter of 2025, economic activity in the commercial sector registered an annual decline of 4.1% in Querétaro. It was the most significant decline among the 32 states, based on original figures from the Quarterly Indicator of State Economic Activity (ITAEE).
Preliminary data on the Gross Domestic Product by State indicate that in 2023, tertiary activities (which include commerce) contributed 49.7 percentage points to the state’s economy; wholesale trade contributed 10.5 points, and retail trade 6.6 points.
Source: eleconomista
