“Given the current situation, where the US economy is currently very unpredictable, this really only adds to the existing market uncertainty,” she said.
Meanwhile, the US unemployment rate reached 4.4% by the end of 2025, one of its highest levels since 2021, while the consulting firm Gray & Christmas estimated last week that layoffs exceeded 100,000 this January, the highest monthly figure since 2009 and a 118% year-over-year increase.
“When employment in the United States slows, remittances fall sharply, creating immediate pressure on domestic consumption, retail sales, and tax revenues,” warned Nur Cristiani, Head of Investment Strategy for Latin America at J.P. Morgan, in an analysis.
Although Mexico is the largest recipient of remittances in absolute terms, these transfers represent about 4% of its gross domestic product (GDP), similar to Colombia. However, in Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador, they account for about a quarter of the economy, according to the report.
In addition to the weak dollar and unemployment, President Trump implemented a 1% tax on remittances that went into effect in January, affecting at least 48 million migrants. For every additional 1% of the tax, the volume of remittances would fall by about 1.6% in the United States, according to an analysis by the Center for Global Development (CGD).
Source: telemundo
