Four Years Remain Until Mexico Chooses Its Next President, but the Race for the National Palace Has Already Begun
At least in the collective imagination, the race is underway. Polling firm CE Research published its national Presidential Prospects 2030 survey this month, conducted between June 14 and 16 with 1,000 telephone interviews and a margin of error of +/- 2.53%.
The results outline a scenario in which Morena continues to dominate, a cabinet secretary emerges as the clear favorite, and a billionaire businessman begins to be taken seriously as a presidential option.
Sheinbaum With Momentum on Her Side
Before discussing the future, the numbers speak about the present. President Claudia Sheinbaum records a 70% approval rating in June 2026—one point higher than in the previous measurement. Of that total, 46% rate her administration as “good” and 24% as “very good,” compared to 30% who consider it bad or very bad.
The figure matters because the approval level of the sitting president has historically been one of the best indicators of the ruling party’s chances in the next election.
The latest survey places her one point above the previous exercise and details that 46% evaluate her administration as good and 24% as very good, while 30% disapprove.
García Harfuch: Alone at the Top of Morena
Within the ruling party, the question of who should be the presidential candidate in 2030 has an answer that leaves little room for debate: Omar García Harfuch, the current Secretary of Security, holds 40% of the preferences among Morena supporters.
His closest challenger is Marcelo Ebrard with just 16%. The rest of the Morena field trails far behind:
- Clara Brugada: 8%
- Mara Lezama: 6%
- Luisa María Alcalde: 2%
- Andrés López Beltrán: 1%
The remaining 27% prefer “someone else,” a figure that could indicate room for names that are not yet part of the public conversation.
The Opposition: Fragmented and Full of Undecided Voters
Within the PAN, the picture is more open—or more uncertain, depending on the perspective. Forty-one percent of PAN supporters have not yet decided whom they would like as their candidate. Among those with a preference, Ricardo Anaya leads with 25%, followed by Lilly Téllez with 14%, Maru Campos with 8%, and Mauricio Kuri with 5%.
The PRI faces a similar situation: 53% of its supporters prefer “someone else,” suggesting that many voters do not identify with any of the available names. Among those mentioned, Manolo Jiménez leads with 15%, followed by Beatriz Paredes with 13% and Esteban Villegas Villarreal with 11%. Party leader Alejandro Moreno appears last with only 8%.
In Movimiento Ciudadano, Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas leads with 25%, followed by Samuel García with 19% and Jorge Álvarez Máynez with 8%. Another 45% prefer “someone else.”
The Salinas Pliego Factor
Perhaps the most striking result of the survey is not strictly political: six out of ten Mexicans (60%) said they would like to see Ricardo Salinas Pliego on the 2030 presidential ballot. Of that group, 71% would prefer him to run as an independent candidate.
The Head-to-Head Scenario: Morena Leads, but Competition Remains
When CE Research presented a hypothetical ballot featuring all the major names, the results were:
- Omar García Harfuch (Morena): 40%
- Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas (MC): 25%
- Ricardo Anaya (PAN): 12%
- Ricardo Salinas Pliego (Independent): 11%
- Alejandro Moreno (PRI): 3%
- Undecided: 9%
The survey was conducted from June 14 to June 16, 2026, and was registered with Mexico’s National Electoral Institute (INE) under ID 201509111210081.
Source: infobae
