The US elections are just around the corner, a fact that keeps Mexico in suspense. Some experts say that it would be better for the country to keep the Democratic Party with Kamala Harris, while the Republican Donald Trump raises more concerns.
The truth is that in the last 32 years, there is no balance in favor or against, since Mexico has done well and not so well with one and the other in key indicators for its economy, such as exports and remittances, as shown by data from Banxico.
In fact, businessmen and representatives of the Mexican government are not leaning towards Harris or Trump, they consider that with both there will be challenges, especially with a review of the T-MEC on the horizon towards 2026.
“We are prepared for any of the scenarios, in any case with important differences of course in terms of how things are said or what is proposed, we have to realize that the predominant environment today in the United States is protectionist, we are in a very different moment from what we were used to in the past, that the United States was the standard-bearer of free trade,” is the comment that the Secretary of Economy, Marcelo Ebrard, has made on several occasions.
How has Mexico fared in trade with the US?
There are two facts that stand out, both the NAFTA and its successor, the T-MEC were promoted by the Republican party, the first was signed in 1992, when George H. W. Bush was in power, but it did not come into force until 1994, already with Bill Clinton (Democrat) as president.
While the T-MEC was proposed by Trump and agreed upon in September 2018, and will come into force on July 1, 2020. The two treaties have been important for Mexico’s economy, although, thanks to the Republicans, the fruits were seen with the Democrats.
In 1994, the year in which NAFTA came into force, Mexico’s exports to the United States were 42,911 million dollars, when the Clinton administration ended (2020), they reached 147,399 million.
From 2001 to 2008, the period of Republican George W. Bush (son), Mexican exports to the neighboring country maintained a growth year after year.
With Barack Obama from 2009 to 2016, there were some ups and downs, but especially in his first year, which is explained by one of the biggest economic crises in history.
Under the Trump administration, Mexico’s export growth was steady in the first three years, but in 2020 it fell due to the Covid-19 pandemic.
Under Joe Biden’s government, trade with Mexico is growing significantly. With Trump’s T-MEC, in 2023 the country became the United States’ main partner, reaching an export value of 490,183 million dollars.
Source: expansion
