The start of President Trump’s second administration in the White House is imminent. Since his campaign speeches, Donald Trump has promised a series of actions that could greatly affect Mexico and the entire world, although some of them may also be new investment and business opportunities.
More recently, as president-elect, he has not stopped making statements on various issues and against different countries that have earned strong responses from various heads of government. Threats such as not sending aid to Ukraine again, or taking back control of the Panama Canal, buying Greenland, or classifying Mexican drug cartels as criminals, or about the intention to carry out the largest mass deportation of illegal immigrants in history, as well as the implementation of tariffs.
Trump’s squad of appointees, from Vice President J. D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Stephen Miller as Deputy Director for Policy, Tom Homan at Immigration and Customs Enforcement, Howard Lutnick as Secretary of Commerce, to Ronald Johnson, a CIA veteran and former Green Beret, as Ambassador to Mexico, seem to present a heavy hand against Mexico. Given this phantasmagorical picture, the obvious question is: Are we prepared for what is coming? Shouldn’t we have a plan for what may happen?
Excluding possible decisions and events of a geopolitical nature, from his various promises and speeches, we can classify the possible events of economic risk into two main groups: those that have to do directly with Mexico and the more general decisions that will affect the world if they materialize.
These are those that have to do with Mexico:
- Mass deportation of illegals: a highly probable action. What do we have prepared to receive hundreds of thousands of migrants in our territory?
- Imposition of generalized tariffs of up to 25 percent if we fail to meet the imposed goals of migrant control and fentanyl flow.
- Intention to impose a tax on family remittances.
- Possible imposition of greater regional integration in our exports and excluding Chinese capital.
- Intention to reopen the North American Free Trade Agreement before the review scheduled in the treaty itself for 2026.
- Extraterritorial actions against drug cartels.
As for the measures that could affect the whole world, these four are the main ones:
a. General tariff of 10 percent for imports from all countries.
b. The possible reduction of the corporate income tax rate from 21 to 15 percent.
c. Promotion and preference for hydrocarbons in relation to renewable energies.
d. Deepening trade war against China.
It is clear that Mexico needs an action and containment plan against all these risks. Due to space limitations, it is impossible to mention what could be proposed for each of these factors, but we will limit ourselves to mentioning some general suggestions that we believe should be included in a far-reaching contingency plan.
- Present a credible, consistent government program with an emphasis on fiscal discipline and economic growth.
- Propose a thorough review of the current tax regime in Mexico so that it is much more competitive, generating greater revenue and at the same time greater investment and greater economic activity. In other words, a supply-side tax policy.
- Have the defense teams and strategies to adopt before the T-MEC instances ready to request the dispute panels that are necessary to counteract Trump’s unilateral protectionist impositions.
- Implement a comprehensive financial risk policy for the federal government.
- Strengthen the rule of law and respect it at all levels.
- Reinforce security actions, combat floor rights, extortion, and corruption.
- Promote the development of strategic sectors, with an active industrial policy.
- Review the regulatory framework of the financial system to achieve greater depth and efficiency in it.
Source: elfinanciero
