This week, the consulting firm Integralia released an analysis of 10 political risks for 2025, which highlights a challenging outlook for Mexico, characterized by the concentration of power, legal uncertainty, and external factors that could alter the country’s economic and social stability. The report warns of the possible impacts that these risks will have on democratic governance and the business environment.
- Donald Trump’s return to the presidency of the United States
Donald Trump’s arrival at the White House poses a scenario of commercial, diplomatic, and immigration tensions. Economic uncertainty is expected due to possible tariffs, effects on bilateral trade, and restrictive measures on immigration. This will directly impact companies linked to foreign trade and could intensify the immigration crisis on Mexico’s northern border.
Prosecutors have rejected the allegations of Trump’s lawyers, who maintain that announcing the conviction before the inauguration on January 20 could jeopardize an orderly transfer of the presidency.
- Concentration of power and weakness of democratic checks and balances
Morena’s political hegemony after the 2024 elections has relegated the opposition to a testimonial role, weakening institutional checks and balances. This has created an environment where the federal Executive’s decisions prioritize political criteria over technical ones, affecting legal certainty and the business climate. - Uncertain future for the USMCA and economic integration
The review of the USMCA in 2026 is emerging as a critical challenge. Political and trade tensions between Mexico, the United States, and Canada could weaken the treaty, which would affect Mexico’s attractiveness for nearshoring and other strategic sectors. - Judicial reform and its effects on legal certainty
The implementation of judicial reform could lead to greater politicization of the justice system, making it difficult to impartially resolve legal disputes. This will generate uncertainty for companies, with possible increases in operating costs and a reduction in investments.
Alberto Pérez Dayán’s position would prevent the approval of the draft ruling under analysis that proposes declaring the popular election of magistrates and judges invalid, and validating that of ministers.
- Uncertainty over reforms promoted by the government
The report warns that the reforms promoted by the government, in areas such as water, the environment and telecommunications, could increase legal and regulatory uncertainty, affecting strategic sectors. In addition, these reforms often exclude the business sector from the discussions, prioritizing political criteria over economic ones.
- Public insecurity and fragmentation of organized crime
The change in security strategy, focused on capturing criminal leaders, could trigger an increase in violent confrontations and the fragmentation of criminal groups. This would affect micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) in regions with a high incidence of crime, in addition to complicating the transfer of goods by road.
- Pressure on water concessionaire companies
The National Water Plan prioritizes human consumption over industrial use, which could limit the availability of water for companies. In addition, the discussion of a new General Water Law could bring restrictive measures for sectors that use the resource intensively.
- Electoral reforms and their impact on democracy
Proposals for reform in the electoral system, such as the elimination of legislative reelection and the modification of proportional representation lists, could reduce the guarantees of fair political competition and limit the representation of the opposition, weakening the Mexican democratic system.
- Crisis in the energy and telecommunications sector
The centralization of the energy sector and the possible reconfiguration of telecommunications generate a climate of uncertainty that would stop key investments. This would affect Mexico’s competitiveness in areas such as electricity, lithium and telecommunications.
The Federal Institute of Telecommunications announced the start of Mexico’s first 5G auction, in a context of extinction of autonomous bodies and particular suffocation for the IFT due to a 70% budget cut that is already financially suffocating it in the fulfillment of its regulatory obligations and the payment of salaries to its few thousand workers.
- Fiscal crisis and tax reform proposals
The deterioration of public finances could lead the government to implement a tax reform, focused on increasing taxes for individuals and corporations. This measure would affect the private sector and increase operating costs, especially in strategic sectors.
According to Integralia, 2025 is shaping up to be a year of high political and economic risks for Mexico. The ability to mitigate these risks will depend on government strategies and the private sector’s willingness to adapt to a constantly changing environment, and the actions of the actors involved will define the country’s stability and its growth opportunities.
Source: eleconomista
