Every year, one in seven hurricanes that hit Mexico impacts Baja California Sur. By 2025, the forecast is for up to six major hurricanes to form in the Pacific, with the greatest risk between September and October.
Faced with this scenario, the La Paz City Council installed the Municipal Civil Protection Council on Tuesday, May 20, and declared it in permanent session, where they announced the details and actions to be taken for the arrival of hurricane season.
Forecast and Conditions for the 2025 Season
Julio César Villarreal Trasviña explained that the eastern Pacific Ocean is currently in a neutral state—temperatures in the equatorial zone are neither three degrees above (El Niño) nor three degrees below (La Niña) their historical average—and the National Meteorological Service assigns a 50% probability that this state will continue through the summer, when the most active phase of cyclones begins.
By 2025, eight to nine tropical storms, four to five Category 1-2 hurricanes, and four to six major hurricanes (3-5) are forecast. Historically, the Mexican Pacific experiences three direct hits per year, with peak formation occurring in August, September, and October, with September-October being the months of greatest risk for Baja California Sur.
In terms of rainfall, May and June are expected to generate only light rainfall; more consistent rainfall is expected starting in July, driven by the Mexican monsoon.
Even so, Conagua warned that the peninsula could fall below the climatological average, so every system “counts” to alleviate the drought.
It is mentioned that over the period from 1964 to 2024, that is, in 61 years, Baja California Sur accounted for 13.8% of the country’s tropical cyclone impacts (one in seven), making it the state with the highest percentage of impacts in Mexico, followed by Quintana Roo with 13.3% and Sinaloa with 10.5%.
In presenting the 2024 season report, Villarreal Trasviña stated that twelve systems formed in the Mexican Pacific, but only Tropical Storm Lileana (September 12-15) grazed Baja California Sur; Hurricane John and a tropical depression affected other states. The state recorded below-average rainfall, with an anomaly of 50 to 100 millimeters.
In the short term, there is a low-pressure zone south of Guerrero and Oaxaca with a 0% cyclone development forecast in the next 48 hours, but a 20% forecast in seven days, the official added, inviting the public to follow official sources from Conagua and its website.
The municipal director of Civil Protection, Francisco Cervantes Navarro, detailed the 2025 Special Program, which includes:
12 inter-institutional brigades with 575 personnel, 102 vehicles, 18 ambulances, one helicopter, and 18 specialized units.
Initial capacity to house 2,500 people in three urban and 18 rural shelters; in a second phase, nine more shelters will be opened, covering 4,780 spaces.
A direct link to 911 and the “La Paz” app allows citizens to check shelter openings and emergency reports in real time.
On behalf of Governor Víctor Manuel Castro Cosío, Undersecretary Héctor Amparo Herrera celebrated La Paz’s punctuality in establishing the council and recalled that the Supreme Court issued a statement on May 16th urging all municipalities to have updated risk atlases for the country.
“The municipality has a competent instrument; we will support the northern municipalities and Los Cabos so they can quickly obtain these planning and prevention documents. We have between 45,000 and 50,000 people at risk in settlements in Los Cabos,” he added.
Quiroga Romero requested that Civil Protection send the CFE the coordinates of the wells that supply the city, in order to prioritize power restoration and avoid drinking water outages in the event of an impact.
The mayor requested that Civil Protection, along with the City Council Secretariat and the Coordination of Delegations, contact rural district areas to establish their rural civil protection councils for preventive purposes and a secure communication channel to address any emergencies that may arise.
She also asked Public Services and Integrated City Management to expedite the cleanup of the 10 flooding hotspots identified before the first rainfall.
The mayor concluded by declaring the session in recess, but permanently adjourned, and emphasized that prevention is the best tool for protecting lives.
The council will meet again in June to review progress on cleanup and landslide prevention at the ten critical flooding hotspots and, with support from Conagua, to conduct historical hurricane trajectory exercises to strengthen community planning.
Source: oem
