Blackouts are expected in Baja California Sur this coming summer—and indeed, they have already begun following recent temperatures of 40 degrees Celsius—warned Jaqueline Valenzuela Meza, Executive Director of the Center for Renewable Energy and Environmental Quality (CERCA).
She noted that with the arrival of summer on June 21, weather forecasts predict rising temperatures in Baja California Sur; some areas will exceed 40 degrees, causing electricity demand to skyrocket. Consequently, “we will have to resort to supply cutoffs, which the operator is forced to implement.”
Regarding the state’s installed electricity generation capacity, she stated it stands at 1,100 megawatts (MW). While this should suffice for peak demand—which hovers around 750 MW—the issue is that only 65% of that total capacity is actually operational. “So, we do lack capacity; we need greater generation to ensure energy availability.”
Although there is currently a portfolio of 15 electricity generation projects for the entire Baja California peninsula (comprising two states), each project takes at least three years to build.
She added that a week ago, the Federal Electricity Commission (CFE) put out a call for bids under a mixed scheme for 11 projects representing 380 MW of capacity. Added to the 500 MW from other projects planned by the state-owned utility, this would total 880 MW; however, the problem is that this new capacity would not come online until 2029.
Jaqueline Valenzuela pointed out that the peninsula has never had a portfolio of this scale—15 projects—before. Nevertheless, planning for increased electricity generation must continue, as the population of Baja California Sur is growing rapidly (by about 10% annually), as is its tourism industry. “The economic dynamics of Baja California Sur have resulted in the state experiencing—over the last 15 years—population growth surpassing that of any other state in the country; this has translated into double-digit increases in electricity demand across both the Baja California Sur and Mulegé grid systems.”
He noted that, given this scenario, electricity generation would need to increase by 10% annually—a rate that is unsustainable, particularly since bringing a new project online takes at least three years.
Consequently, blackouts are anticipated this summer due to high demand driven by the need for climate control, as both households and businesses are using air conditioning far more extensively than in the past.
Source: oem
