The probability of a new cyclone forming off the coast of Oaxaca increases to 80%.

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The National Water Commission (Conagua) is monitoring a low-pressure zone off the southern coast of Oaxaca, which presents a 40% probability of developing a new cyclone within 48 hours and an 80% probability within seven days.

It is located 590 kilometers south of Puerto Ángel, Oaxaca, moving west-northwest. It is expected to evolve into a tropical cyclone over the weekend or early next week, off the southern coasts of Guerrero and Michoacán.

In this regard, the State Coordination of Civil Protection and Risk Management (CEPCyGR) of Oaxaca reported that this Thursday, July 3, 2025, tropical wave number 8 will cause instability in southern and southeastern Mexico.

They predict that as this meteorological phenomenon advances westward, it will combine with a low pressure zone with the potential for cyclonic development and with the monsoon trough, generating cloudiness that could lead to rain and thunderstorms. The agency adds that in the coming hours, some strong storms associated with electrical activity and wind gusts, with greater intensity in mountainous areas, cannot be ruled out.

According to the weather forecast issued by the National Water Commission (Conagua), temperatures will drop slightly in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, the coast, and the lower Papaloapan Basin. The lowest temperatures will be most significant in the highlands of the Mixteca region, combined with areas of fog at dawn.

Temperatures for today are as follows in Oaxaca:

Central Valleys, a minimum of 14 degrees and a maximum of 29 degrees.
Isthmus of Tehuantepec, a minimum of 22 degrees and a maximum of 34 degrees.
Papaloapan Basin, a minimum of 16 degrees and a maximum of 32 degrees.
Coast, a minimum of 22 degrees and a maximum of 34 degrees.
Mixteca, a minimum of 14 degrees and a maximum of 28 degrees.
Flores Magón Mountains: low of 16 and high of 31 degrees.
Juárez Mountains: low of 8 and high of 24 degrees.
Southern Mountains: low of 10 and high of 26 degrees.
The population is urged to heed the recommendations of Civil Protection and the Harbor Master’s Offices, and to stay informed about weather conditions.

Aumenta 80% Probabilidad de que se Forme Ciclón Frente Costas de Oaxaca

Source: nmas