Although there are still two years to go until the 2027 elections, in which 17 governorships will be contested, speculation is rife as to whether the alliance between the PRI and PAN can be consolidated again, or whether the latter party will step aside to join forces with Movimiento Ciudadano.
Which party will the PAN form an alliance with in 2027?
Recall that a few weeks ago, the PAN’s national leader, Jorge Romero, announced that his party is approaching a refounding process, in which one of the objectives will be to run independently in the upcoming elections.
“Today we are betting on our colors. This is an increasingly clear demand for the PAN membership, as it must once again bet on itself,” the PAN leader stated.
President Claudia Sheinbaum even added to the topic of a possible split between the PAN and the PRI, noting that there are rumors of a PAN alliance with MC, which she dubbed “McPAN.”
“By the way, I don’t know if you’ve seen that the PAN says it’s ‘going to pause its alliance with the PRI.’ They’re also saying that they’re actually going to recover their 2018 alliance (with MC)… They’re going to recover that alliance,” they say. “It’s going to be ‘McPAN,'” the president declared on September 22.
Despite doubts about the continuity of the PAN-PRI coalition, polls indicate that both parties, united, could win five of the 17 governorships they will contest in 2027 from Morena.
These are the states that the PAN and PRI would win in the 2027 elections.
According to a survey by the firm Algoritmo, these are the five states that the PAN and PRI alliance would win over Morena in the upcoming 2027 midterm elections.
Aguascalientes
The PAN-PRI alliance would retain the state currently governed by Teresa Jiménez with 46% of the vote.
Meanwhile, Morena, the PT, and the Green Party would obtain 33% of the vote.
The last place goes to Movimiento Ciudadano with 7%.
Michoacán
The survey highlights the union between the The Blue and White Party and the Tricolor Party would have an advantage in the state governed by Morena with 37%.
Meanwhile, the ruling party and its allies, the PT (Party of the Workers’ Party) and the Green Party, are in second place with 35%, just two points behind the first place.
Meanwhile, the MC (Mexican Workers’ Party) reaches 6% of the vote.
Nuevo León
PAN-PRI leads in the gubernatorial vote in the northern state with 35%, followed by Morena-PT-Green Party with 31%.
MC would lose the state it governs with 12%.
Querétaro
The PAN’s bastion state par excellence would retain the party along with the PRI (Party of the Workers’ Party) with 47% of the vote.
Morena, PT (Party of the Workers’ Party), and Green Party would reach 38%; while MC barely reaches 4% of the vote.
San Luis Potosí
Finally, the PAN and PRI lead the poll in that state with 43% of the vote, while the Morena, PT, and Green Party alliance is projected to reach 40%.
Meanwhile, MC is holding 6% of the vote.
The Morena, PT, and Green Party alliance is projected to win 12 states in 2027.
Meanwhile, the ruling party alliance of Morena, PT, and the Green Party is projected to win the remaining 12 governorships up for grabs in the 2027 elections.
Below, we present the results of the algorithm survey by state and voting intention percentages.
Baja California
Morena-PT-Green: 49%
PAN-PRI: 24%
MC: 9%
Others: 18%
Baja California Sur
Morena-PT-Green: 48%
PAN-PRI: 23%
MC: 7%
Others: 22%
Campeche
Morena-PT-Green: 43%
PRI-PAN: 22%
MC: 20%
Others: 15%
Colima
Morena-PT-Green: 42%
PAN-PRI: 33%
MC: 5%
Others: 20%
Chihuahua
Morena-PT-Green: 46%
PAN-PRI: 30%
MC: 5%
Others: 19%
Guerrero
Morena-PT-Green: 59%
PAN-PRI: 22%
MC: 6%
Others: 13%
Nayarit
Morena-PT-Green: 55%
PAN-PRI: 20%
MC: 6%
Others: 19%
Quintana Roo
Morena-PT-Green: 42%
PAN-PRI: 26%
MC: 7%
Others: 25%
Sinaloa
Morena-PT-Green: 34%
PAN-PRI: 33%
MC: 8%
Others: 25%
Sonora
Morena-PT-Green: 37%
PAN-PRI: 30%
MC: 6%
Others: 27%
Tlaxcala
Morena-PT-Green: 47%
PAN-PRI: 19%
MC: 7%
Others: 27%
Zacatecas
Morena-PT-Verde: 45%
PAN-PRI: 31%
MC: 7%
Others: 17%
Source: politico
