There’s no end in sight to the explosive population growth that has taken Los Cabos from 44,000 residents in 1990 to more than 350,000 by 2020. In fact, according to estimated growth models, the population is projected to nearly double again by 2035.
That means that by 2035, just a decade from now, Los Cabos will be poised to house between 600,000 and 650,000 residents. Obviously, this type of sustained growth at such a high rate comes with serious infrastructure challenges, some of which, such as traffic, housing, and water supply shortages, are already obvious to residents.
But assuming demographic trends continue—and there’s no reason to think they won’t—Los Cabos, for example, continues to maintain an annual growth rate of 14-16%, well above the national average. I thought it would be interesting to take a look into the future and see what will be different in Los Cabos a decade from now and what might remain the same.
What’s the plan for Los Cabos?
The first thing to keep in mind is that there is a government plan to manage this significant growth. The first version of this plan appeared in 1999 under the title “Urban Development Master Plan for San José del Cabo and Cabo San Lucas, BCS.” It aimed for responsible development of the destination’s tourism infrastructure. However, by the time the second version appeared in 2013 as “Urban Development Master Plan (PDU 2040),” the focus had shifted to responsible and sustainable residential growth by 2040 (hence the title), with an emphasis on topics such as expansion vision, designated growth areas, housing and water crisis management, and infrastructure improvements.
A third version of this plan is expected to be completed soon, and yes, there is a participatory public element involved. For example, more than 40 workshops were held, with over 700 participants, to gather input on the future direction of the municipality of Los Cabos for the second update in 2013. Public input has also been sought for the third edition, although exactly how much remains uncertain.
If those numbers seem very small relative to the population and its needs, they are. But decisions have been made about the future of the destination. That they are already moving forward is evident in several of the updates that will be discussed shortly.
So, where will the nearly 300,000 new residents who will move to Los Cabos over the next decade come from? Contrary to concerns about gentrification, a hot topic in Mexico, there will be no massive influx of foreigners, either from the United States or elsewhere, for the time being. Currently, there are just over 17,400 foreign residents in the municipality, which represents less than 5% of the total population. About 10,000 more are expected in the next decade, which seems like a lot. However, due to the overall immigration pattern, this will have no significant effect on the percentage of foreign citizens. Rather, the mass of newcomers will be overwhelmingly Mexican, and they will undoubtedly seek new jobs and opportunities in a high-growth region.
Currently, more than half of Baja California Sur’s population was born in another Mexican state, and that trend should continue, with newcomers coming primarily from Guerrero, Sinaloa, Mexico City, and the State of Mexico. Los Cabos, one of the state’s five municipalities, already accounts for a whopping 44% of its total population, and that figure should reach 50% by 2035.
Tourism in Los Cabos is being managed carefully and skillfully, with Rodrigo Esponda, general director of the Los Cabos Tourism Board, noting that the emphasis remains on sustainable growth that maintains the destination’s relatively newfound reputation as a luxury getaway.
Still, both the number of hotel rooms and the number of tourists occupying them could increase significantly over the next 10 years due to increased connectivity and infrastructure improvements. Currently, there are approximately 20,000 rooms available for the four million tourists who visit annually. By 2035, this figure will certainly increase, according to the announcements of new resorts, although it is difficult to predict how much.
What is undeniable is that future growth is being facilitated by ongoing improvements to Los Cabos International Airport to enable it to handle up to 40% more volume, including passengers on new routes from North America, Europe, Central, and South America. Therefore, Los Cabos is well positioned to continue its steady tourism growth while maintaining above-average spending rates.
Traffic and Water Challenges
Traffic, while certainly a concern currently due to the lengthy but much-needed infrastructure upgrade of the Fonatur roundabout in San José del Cabo, estimated to be used by over 60,000 vehicles daily, is expected to accommodate the expected growth. Not only will a third artery between Cabo San Lucas and San José del Cabo, called the Interurban Axis, be built to help divert overflow from Federal Highway 1 and the toll road, but public transportation improvements are also in the works, including the possibility of electric bus service.
These improvements should make traffic between the Cape Town cities flow much more smoothly, although the residential sprawl of overcrowded surface streets is likely to remain a persistent irritant for anyone wanting to get somewhere in a hurry.
Meanwhile, the most concerning issue is likely water management. Currently, for example, Los Cabos has a water deficit of 600 liters per second.
Yes, there are reinforcements on the way, including the opening of a second desalination plant in Cabo San Lucas by 2026, in addition to some private residential and tourism desalination projects by 2027. But demand (see the graph above, which is based on conservative estimates relative to rising population numbers and traditional use) is expected to increase significantly in the next decade.
Another area of concern over the next decade will be housing. As I mentioned in my recent article on wealth disparity in Los Cabos, there is a shortage of affordable housing in Los Cabos, whether houses or rental units. So, if the situation is bad now, what will happen with up to 300,000 more residents moving there by 2035?
The main coastal areas will continue to be reserved for high-end real estate development, with the East Cape of Los Cabos likely to be a hotspot between longtime residents trying to fight exploitative growth and environmental degradation, and residential and tourism speculators who are complacent about the amount of pristine land remaining. Four Seasons fueled the East Cape’s luxury rush in 2019 with its stunning resort and residences at Costa Palmas. Amanvari by Aman is coming soon, and high-end hotel brands Delano and Rifas have announced the opening of resorts and residences on the East Cape by 2029.
Those residences, however, are for a privileged few. For many, Cabo San Lucas and San José del Cabo can look forward to further expansion into outlying areas, such as the Leonardo Gastelum neighborhood or El Tezal del Cabo. Housing initiatives, including those supported locally by President Sheinbaum, have been largely hampered due to the difficulty of acquiring tracts of land at affordable prices. More initiatives will surely be introduced, but the underlying question remains.
What else could change?
These, of course, are just some of the most immediate concerns. There are others as well. What will a rapid population increase mean for us? What will the farm-to-table food supply mean for us? Or for the environment, including the spectacular natural beauty and incredible flora and fauna that made Los Cabos such an attractive destination in the first place? The answers to these questions remain to be seen. Only one thing can be said with certainty: the next 10 years in Los Cabos will be interesting, to say the least.
Source: aconagua
