As the renegotiation of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) approaches, Mexico must raise its ambitions regarding the issues it will present to President Donald Trump’s administration.
“I think Mexico needs an aggressive list of priorities. Donald Trump is a different person than Biden and Obama, and he might be willing to listen to a slightly unconventional idea. So, what Mexico needs is to raise its level of ambition. To say, ‘Hey Donald, look, you’re concerned about security, you’re concerned about migration. Hey, why don’t we develop southern Mexico and Central America with these ideas?'” said foreign trade specialist Luis de la Calle. Speaking at the 2026 Economic Outlook Seminar held by ITAM, De la Calle said that Mexico’s agenda must be different and presented to the United States in a way that can “sell” itself to the Trump administration.
He considered that in the review of the agreement there is a 25% chance of achieving a favorable solution regarding tariffs for Mexico, while in other scenarios, the probability of a major structural renegotiation is 15%, which seems unlikely due to a lack of majorities in the US Congress.
Meanwhile, in his central scenario, there is a 60% chance that the extension letter will not be obtained and that the agreement will enter into annual reviews. He emphasized that Mexico maintains a privileged position in the face of Trump’s changes in foreign trade thanks to the USMCA.
The economist Gerónimo Gutiérrez, from ITAM, agreed with the proposal to package a more ambitious agreement.
He proposed the establishment of an explicit and formal security agreement that would provide a solid structure for collaboration. As a model, he suggested drawing inspiration from the 1944 Water Treaty, which has two national sections reporting to their respective governments. He explained that such a mechanism would protect Mexico from political volatility.
Source: elmanana
