As the time for negotiating and reaching agreements on the USMCA draws nearer, the global political context does nothing to reduce uncertainty for Mexico; on the contrary, it increases exponentially.
What will happen? The best-case scenarios would be minor adjustments to the treaty or a more thorough renegotiation in some areas, and a successful negotiation by the Mexican delegation. The worst-case scenario is that US interests will increase political pressure excessively, and the confrontation will lead to failure.
The Mexican delegation, through Secretary Marcelo Ebrard, maintains and will continue to maintain a position of defending national interests above any pressure; however, this is merely rhetoric. While it has been said that in recent months Mexico has been working to forge alliances within the government and with different sectors to present a common strategic front during the negotiations; This does not guarantee success, because logic doesn’t work in times when the world is in turmoil and US objectives increasingly pose risks to our country, since some of them pertain to elements of economic control—primarily energy and natural resources—and even political control, in an unconditional alliance they seek from our nation.
The US negotiating team is not the only one that has been visible, nor are the interests they pursue. The Palantir program has provided US agencies with sufficient information about the scenarios they wish to create and the benefits they want to achieve for their country. This information is not yet known in Mexico, but the government should be preparing for a major onslaught.
What do I mean? The Mexican government should be preparing for the greatest demands and betrayals from apparent internal and external allies, and developing the strongest possible countermeasures. The friendly, smooth, and logical face that the Americans now seem to be presenting is not real; They are only just beginning to reveal their strategy: it is not an exaggeration to suggest that more cases of corruption involving members of local and federal governments will come to light, or that pockets of instability will be created in certain areas or regions, for example, simply to facilitate negotiations in favor of the United States.
But all of this is not due to American malice. Governments and officials have created these spaces that make Mexico vulnerable through acts of corruption, by action or omission, in many areas, both within the government and in their private lives.
Hopefully, the Mexican State will have genuine intelligence and counterintelligence information at this point in order to sit down with the United States to negotiate. Knowledge of the interests and objectives, weaknesses, and strengths of the northern countries; true internal capabilities regarding our resources and deposits; the power corridors that internal and external groups have or intend to have; and the strengths and weaknesses of the Mexican individuals who will be at the negotiating table are fundamental.
For example, it’s important that President Claudia Sheinbaum knows that her Secretary of State, Marcelo Ebrard, and his family are being investigated by the United States for possible acts of corruption and for granting benefits to China. It’s a genuine and real investigation by two agencies, the FBI and the CIA. They may try to deny it here in Mexico, but it’s true, and they’ll reveal it if they need to, right at the moment of negotiations. Let’s not go far; the information that has surfaced so far about Ebrard and his family is just a small taste of what they have. For the Americans, he’s not a trustworthy person.
Sheinbaum may not be aware of this information, but it’s the responsibility of the intelligence services to inform her, and the same goes for everyone in her cabinet; otherwise, they’ll continue to mislead her.
It’s time to be and act like a stateswoman, not a partisan representative. It is time to have a government of such stature that surrender is impossible, and instead, a genuine negotiation can be carried out that benefits all the countries involved. The excuses of “I wasn’t told” or “I didn’t know” are not only immoral and unethical, they are a betrayal of a country at a time unlike any Mexico has experienced in decades.
Source: lasillarota
