After two years marked by the presence of “La Niña,” Mexico is expected to enter a new climate stage with the possible consolidation of the “El Niño” phenomenon during 2026. The National Meteorological Service (SMN) reported that the warming of the Pacific Ocean is already showing signs of transition and that, between the end of this year and the beginning of 2027, it could reach a phase considered “very strong.”
The information was presented by Fabián Romaña, general coordinator of the SMN, during the official monitoring of the 2026 tropical cyclone season.
The phenomenon is concerning because of its impact on rainfall, droughts, temperatures, and hurricanes in both the Pacific Ocean and the Atlantic. Although “El Niño” is usually associated with extreme heat and reduced rainfall, specialists clarify that each event behaves differently and its effects may vary depending on the region of the country.
What is “El Niño” and why does it affect Mexico?
“El Niño” is part of the phenomenon known as ENSO, which stands for El Niño-Southern Oscillation. It is a natural variation between the ocean and the atmosphere in the equatorial Pacific that changes sea temperatures and alters weather patterns in different parts of the world.
ENSO has three main stages:
• “El Niño”: a warm phase caused by increased Pacific Ocean temperatures.
• “La Niña”: a cold phase caused by cooling ocean temperatures.
• Neutral phase: a period without major alterations.
According to the SMN, the system is currently in a neutral phase, but climate models show a gradual shift toward warmer conditions.
Key dates for “El Niño” in 2026
The development of this phenomenon does not happen immediately. Ocean warming progresses gradually and may take several months to fully develop.
According to official SMN projections, these are the expected stages for 2026:
May to July: Beginning of the phenomenon
During this period, there is a 61% probability that “El Niño” will officially develop. Specialists have detected a gradual increase in Pacific Ocean temperatures.
August to October: Strengthening phase
Between these months, the probability of the phenomenon’s presence will rise to 90%. At this stage, it could evolve from moderate to strong intensity.
November 2026 to January 2027: Critical phase
The SMN warned that this would be the most important period of the phenomenon. Forecasts indicate that the temperature anomaly could exceed 2 degrees Celsius, a condition that technically classifies the event as a “very strong El Niño.”
“We see that by the October-November-December quarter, we could surpass this threshold of 2 degrees of positive anomaly, which would place us in a scenario of a very strong El Niño,” explained Fabián Romaña.
Does the so-called “Super El Niño” really exist?
Meteorological authorities asked the public to avoid terms that often go viral on social media or in some media outlets, such as “Super El Niño” or “Godzilla El Niño.”
The SMN clarified that these expressions are not part of the official scientific classification. The intensity of the phenomenon is only divided into three categories:
• Moderate: warming close to 1 degree Celsius.
• Strong: anomalies of around 1.5 degrees.
• Very strong: warming greater than 2 degrees.
With this clarification, specialists seek to prevent misinformation or alarmist interpretations about climate behavior.
How could “El Niño” affect Mexico?
The effects will not be the same throughout the country. Historically, “El Niño” causes different changes depending on the region and season of the year.
The SMN explained that normally:
• Northern Mexico experiences wetter winters.
• Central Mexico and the Yucatán Peninsula often face drier periods during spring and summer.
• In the Pacific, some tropical storms may become more intense.
However, Romaña emphasized that there is no exact formula to predict the impacts.
“Every El Niño event is different. In 2015, despite being a very strong El Niño, we had above-average rainfall. In 2023, there was a significant rainfall deficit,” he said.
What will happen with hurricanes in 2026?
One of the main effects of “El Niño” is related to the tropical cyclone season.
Specialists explain that the phenomenon can generate two different scenarios:
• In the Atlantic and Caribbean, strong upper-level winds usually make cyclone formation more difficult.
• In the Pacific Ocean, higher water temperatures can favor stronger storms.
For this reason, meteorological authorities continue to closely monitor the evolution of the phenomenon and its possible consequences for Mexico in the coming months.
Why is it important to follow official reports?
Weather behavior can change rapidly, and forecasts are constantly updated as oceanic and atmospheric observations progress.
For this reason, the SMN recommended consulting only official information and avoiding viral content or publications that exaggerate the possible effects of “El Niño.”
Updates on rainfall, droughts, cyclones, and temperatures will be especially important during the second half of 2026, particularly given the possibility that the phenomenon could reach a “very strong” intensity between the end of the year and the beginning of 2027.
Source: msn
