Tamaulipas has set two records this June: the southern lagoon system is at 101.33% capacity, its highest level in 25 years. Meanwhile, the northern dams, Falcón and La Amistad, are at a critically low level of 4.7% and 4.6%, respectively. One state, two realities.
It seems the south is breathing a sigh of relief for now, after the collapse of 2024, when the Chairel-Tamesí system dried up for the first time in history. Today, the lagoons of Tampico, Madero, and Altamira are full. But this respite is temporary. The National Water Commission (Conagua) and the state government launched an urgent operation on the Tamesí River after detecting more than 80 illegal water connections. Only 23 of these connections have permits. The rest are simply water theft, outright plunder that deprives a million people of their water supply.
Secretary Raúl Quiroga stated it bluntly: “It was a brutal crisis that brought southern Tamaulipas to its knees, and we will not allow it to happen again.” The problem is that it’s already happening. The water taps are hidden among the brush and river; every liter stolen is a liter that doesn’t reach your tap.
The north is parched! While the south boasts lagoons, the north is dying. The Amistad Reservoir is at 19.3% capacity and the Falcón Reservoir at 15.3%. Matamoros, Reynosa, Nuevo Laredo, and Río Bravo are in the red zone. Sixteen of the 43 municipalities are in critical condition. 200,000 hectares of crops are at risk. Irrigation District 025 is not authorized to irrigate because, quite simply, there is no water.
And on top of that, we owe water to the United States. Mexico has only delivered 39% of the volume stipulated in the 1944 Treaty. But the reservoirs are empty. Producers warn: “There isn’t enough water to pay the debt.” If the government complies, the north will be left without crops.
The problem lies with the paperwork, not the cloud, because this isn’t just about drought. It’s about over-concessions. Between 2020 and 2023, Conagua (the National Water Commission) increased permits in the Guayalejo-Tamesí basin by 117%. If this continues, it will be overexploited in five years. We’re giving away on paper what doesn’t exist on Earth.
Today, Tamaulipas uses between 40% and over 80% of its renewable water reserves. Nuevo Laredo is experiencing “extremely high water stress”: over 80%. In UN terms, that means collapse.
The government boasts about operations; for example, in May 2026, they detected 70 illegal water connections on the Guayalejo River. And the complaints? Zero. The same thing happened last year. Conagua reports, but doesn’t impose sanctions. The Senate has already approved the deployment of the National Guard, but meanwhile, the water is being stolen by many ranchers, farmers, and even industries. Fuel theft is no longer just about gasoline: it’s about water. And no one is being arrested.
Pemex wants to do fracking in the Burgos Basin, but there isn’t even enough water for the people. The solution they offer is to use saltwater or treated water. Translation: we’re going to squeeze the subsoil dry for gas while 16 municipalities don’t have enough to drink.
In Tamaulipas, they grant concessions for what doesn’t exist. They steal what does. They promise a dam for 2026 when the river dried up in 2024. They fill the lagoon today and forget that tomorrow the dry season begins.
The south has water until the fuel theft and the heat last. The north has none. And both pay the same price: a political class that manages abundance with permits and scarcity with speeches.
If the over-concession isn’t canceled, if there aren’t jail times for water thieves, if Texas isn’t told there’s no money to pay, 2026 will be another 2024. Only this time, not even the Chairel River will save us.
Water doesn’t run out: it’s being used up. And in Tamaulipas, those who are using it up have names, surnames, and concessions.
Source: notatamaulipas
