Economic recession and local tax burdens are acting as a brake on businesses in Baja California; data from the Mexican Social Security Institute (IMSS) shows a 9.2% year-over-year contraction in the opening of formal businesses between January and May 2026 compared to the same period in 2025.
Specifically, IMSS regional figures record a total of 3,097 registered employers as of May 31, 2026, down from the 3,410 businesses that opened by May 31, 2025, in the state.
A lack of tax incentives for companies, insecurity, economic recession, and bureaucratic hurdles remain the primary factors affecting the opening of formal businesses in Baja California, thereby impacting the labor market.
Consequently, it is essential to strengthen internal sources of growth and consolidate conditions favorable to private investment—which is of strategic importance—in a context where uncertainty could affect the execution of productive projects in certain sectors, as business leaders noted to the Bank of Mexico in its report on regional economic activity.
Furthermore, business executives continue to emphasize the importance of strengthening public security and the rule of law as necessary conditions to spur investment and drive growth, thereby accelerating business openings in Baja California and creating formal jobs.
However, if various authorities fail to address the reality of the economic recession, the lack of growth could be prolonged, or result in only a marginal uptick in the second half of 2026; this would lead to fewer active businesses in the state and further workforce reductions.
Source: afntijuana.info
