U.S. Rejection of USMCA Renewal Opens Debate on Regional Production Strategy
The possibility that the United States would reject the renewal of the USMCA had already been anticipated by Mexican authorities, most experts and analysts, and financial markets. Although the common view among stakeholders is that the trilateral trade agreement will remain in force for at least another ten years, the prospect of annual reviews—already established within the agreement’s framework—is generating the greatest concern and uncertainty.
One of the most structural responses to this scenario comes from American Chamber Mexico, which represents U.S. companies operating in Mexico that contribute roughly one-fifth of the country’s GDP. The organization, led by Executive Vice President and CEO Pedro Casas Alatriste, proposes moving beyond a traditional trade relationship toward a regional co-production model.
This approach would include the development of a joint trade policy, the identification of strategic industries shared by both countries, coordinated tax incentives, and harmonized tariffs to strengthen regional integration. It would also address structural issues such as migration to reinforce North American cooperation.
The proposal is based on the fact that intraregional trade currently accounts for only about 30 percent of total trade, well below the levels seen in Asia and Europe, leaving significant room for growth. Even with tariffs in place, regional trade could remain highly competitive as long as tariffs are lower than those imposed on countries outside North America. The proposal also recommends harmonizing tariffs on Chinese products and reviewing rules of origin and labor standards as part of a broader regional strategy.
Cautious Optimism
Annual reviews are expected to reduce investment certainty, making it important for Mexico to negotiate longer intervals between reviews—potentially every three years—to provide greater stability for investors.
Such an approach could help maintain negotiations until the current U.S. administration leaves office, creating an opportunity for a future government to reconsider the agreement under different conditions.
In the meantime, Mexico is encouraged to strengthen investment certainty by providing clear regulations and improving the domestic business environment. While foreign direct investment has remained stable, much of it comes from companies already established in the country rather than new investors.
If both trade-related uncertainty and domestic regulatory concerns are addressed, investment could increase significantly. Although the private sector sees progress in improving investment conditions, it expects further reforms to enhance competitiveness and economic growth.
The Cost of Uncertainty
Banamex estimated that uncertainty surrounding the USMCA reduced Mexico’s GDP growth by 0.3 percentage points last year.
The bank reported that private investment declined by 3.3 percent year over year in 2025 due to both domestic and international factors, including uncertainty over future access to the U.S. market.
Its economic forecasts for 2026 and 2027—1.3 percent and 1.8 percent GDP growth, respectively—already incorporate the expectation of continued uncertainty surrounding the agreement. Banamex anticipates annual reviews through 2028, when the next U.S. presidential election could create an opportunity to extend the USMCA for another 16 years.
Meanwhile, HSBC Mexico stated that although the U.S. decision not to renew the agreement immediately would create uncertainty regarding future negotiations, the existing trade framework should continue to support Mexico’s efforts to strengthen regional supply chains and expand its market share in the United States.
Academic Cooperation
During the 7th International Forum of Securities Issuers of the Americas (FIMVA 2026) held in Honduras, the Escuela Bolsa Mexicana of the Mexican Stock Exchange Group (BMV) and the Central American Stock Exchange signed a cooperation agreement to promote education and professional training for issuers, investors, and financial institutions across the region.
Through this agreement, the Escuela Bolsa Mexicana will make available its 25 years of educational experience, along with training programs and financial market expertise, to the nine stock exchanges that make up the Association of Capital Markets of the Americas (AMERCA).
Industrial Expansion
Once Fibra Next, led by Raúl Gallegos, receives approval from its Corporate Practices Committee, it will finalize the acquisition of the Saturno Portfolio, consisting of two industrial properties located in Mexico City.
The portfolio includes a total gross leasable area of 501,659 square meters, of which approximately 207,479 square meters are already operational and 294,180 square meters remain under development.
The acquisition may be paid in cash, real estate investment trust certificates, or a combination of both. The portfolio is expected to generate a Net Operating Income (NOI) of 1.0325 billion pesos and a combined capitalization rate of 9.0 percent.
With this transaction, together with previous acquisitions, Fibra Next will have fully invested the capital raised through its initial public offering and subsequent equity issuance, reinforcing its long-term industrial growth strategy.
Healthcare Initiative
Through Hospital Clínica Nova, Ternium, led by Máximo Vedoya, launched a Neurodivergence Clinic, a multidisciplinary center dedicated to treating children and adolescents with neurodevelopmental conditions such as autism spectrum disorder, ADHD, and language disorders.
The initiative brings together specialists in pediatrics, mental health, neurodevelopment, nursing, and social work. It also includes the Espacio Conecta program, which will provide therapy sessions, educational workshops, and support for parents and caregivers.
With more than 500 healthcare professionals and approximately 48,000 patients treated annually, Hospital Nova has become a strategic asset for Ternium, demonstrating the company’s long-term commitment to investing in healthcare as part of its broader corporate strategy.
Source: heraldodemexico
