One of the essential functions of the State, enshrined in Article 21 of the Political Constitution of the United Mexican States, is to guarantee public security. This function constitutes the foundation of the modern social contract: citizens surrender part of their freedoms and contribute through taxes in exchange for security, justice, education, healthcare, and infrastructure.
The analysis of current criminal policy requires contrasting official indicators with the criminological reality experienced by citizens. The official indicator shows a reduction in intentional homicide. According to data presented by Marcela Figueroa Franco, head of the Executive Secretariat of the National Public Security System (SESNSP), the daily average of intentional homicides decreased by 51% between September 2024 and July 2026, falling from 86.9 to 42.5 cases per day.
The figure represents 44 fewer homicides per day and would constitute the lowest level for a month of July since 2015. This achievement should be recognized as a result of the National Security Strategy led by President Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo. However, these figures contrast with the structural crisis in access to justice.
According to the assessment presented by Luis Arriaga Valenzuela, rector of Universidad Iberoamericana Mexico City, and consistent with the National Survey on Victimization and Perception of Public Security (ENVIPE) conducted by INEGI, 93% of crimes are not reported, while only 0.77% of cases conclude with an effective sanction.
This figure reveals that the recorded decrease in homicide does not necessarily imply a reduction in violence, but rather a possible lack of confidence in law enforcement institutions. The principle of effectiveness of the adversarial criminal justice system is compromised when fewer than 1% of offenses result in a legal consequence.
Added to this is the phenomenon of disappearances. According to official figures, in March 2024, 99,729 missing persons were recorded. By the end of 2025, the figure had reportedly risen to 130,000, meaning 30,000 additional people in less than two years.
If this trend is confirmed, it would be necessary to analyze whether part of the reduction in intentional homicide is attributable to a classification problem in which homicides are recorded as disappearances.
Sinaloa and the Territoriality of the State
The fragility of the legitimate monopoly on violence, in Weberian terms, becomes evident at the subnational level.
Graciela Domínguez Nava assumed office as interim governor of Sinaloa on August 25, following Rubén Rocha Moya’s leave of absence, and established peace as a priority. Twelve days into her administration, 58 homicides were documented in the state, an average of 4.8 per day, despite the deployment of an additional 300 Mexican Army personnel.
The case illustrates what doctrine describes as a “state within a state”: when a criminal group imposes de facto taxation, the so-called “protection payment” (derecho de piso), in exchange for allowing people to work or travel, it replaces the State’s taxing and coercive authority.
As Jean-Jacques Rousseau explained in The Social Contract (1762), the State is an intangible entity resulting from a collective pact. When it experiences minor failures, the system remains intact. When, on the contrary, it allows a non-state actor to collect irregular taxes and control stretches of highways, as has been reported on the Mexico-Tuxpan highway, the pact is broken and a gray zone of disputed sovereignty emerges.
Mexico has formally strong institutions and an economy that has avoided systemic crises such as those experienced during the 20th century.
Nevertheless, corruption persists from the operational level to senior public officials. A critical factor is the weakening of the Attorney General’s Office of the Republic (FGR), an autonomous body under Article 102 of the Constitution. The practice of hiring through special appointments and personal relationships, to the detriment of the Professional Career Service, has been identified, along with three-month temporary contracts and selective instructions regarding what should be investigated. This undermines the principles of autonomy, objectivity, and professionalization of the Public Prosecutor’s Office.
Without effective and exemplary sanctions against high-level officials who obtain illicit resources through their positions, the perverse incentive described in the literature on rational choice in crime is perpetuated.
The same can be said of the Federal Judiciary. Judicial reform has given rise to the colloquial phenomenon known as “accordion judges”, referring to judges who, in numerous cases, would lack the experience and knowledge necessary to head courts or tribunals.
The 51% reduction in the daily average of intentional homicides is an official, verifiable figure and should be recognized, but it cannot be interpreted in isolation. The persistence of an unreported-crime rate above 90% and a sanction rate below 1% demonstrates that the problem is not only one of crime incidence, but also of effective access to justice. The case of Sinaloa demonstrates that military deployment without strengthening local institutions is insufficient to recover territorial control.
The following measures are proposed:
a) strengthen the Professional Career Service within the FGR through evaluations based on ability rather than political loyalty;
b) establish a national system for the effective punishment of high-level corruption;
c) link security indicators to reporting and judicialization indicators, rather than focusing solely on homicides.
The Mexican State is one and indivisible.
Its legitimacy does not depend on ignoring dissent, but on guaranteeing security and justice for all its inhabitants, without distinction between supporters and opponents. Constitutional history, from the division between liberals and conservatives in the 19th century, demonstrates that internal polarization has been exploited by external actors. This must not be repeated. As Montesquieu warned, there is no tyranny more cruel than that exercised under the shadow of the laws and in the colors of justice.
Source: hidalgo.quadratin
