Low entry of excursionists to Mexico impacted tourism in 2023

In 2019, 52.4 million excursionists entered Mexico, a decrease of 32.25%, which could be due to the appreciation of the peso against the dollar, the high inflation in the service sector and the public insecurity in Mexico.

In the last month of 2023, a total of 7.87 million international visitors entered the country.

The peso starts the week with an appreciation of 0.22% or 3 cents, trading around 17.04 pesos per dollar, with the exchange rate touching a maximum of 17.1136 and a minimum of 17.0456 pesos per dollar. The market is awaiting the publication of the United States inflation for January, tomorrow Tuesday, February 13 at 7:30 am. It is estimated that the annual inflation of the United States was 2.9% in January, slowing down from 3.4% in December. If the expectation is materialized, the dollar would weaken, which would push the exchange rate in Mexico to break the psychological level of 17.00 pesos per dollar, to head towards the support of 16.90 pesos.

In the session, the dollar remains unchanged weakening 0.01%, according to the weighted index. The most appreciated currencies today are: the Chilean peso with 0.36%, the Norwegian crown with 0.32%, the Swedish crown with 0.29%, the Israeli shekel with 0.29%, the Indonesian rupee with 0.26% and the Mexican peso with 0.22%. On the contrary, the most depreciated currencies today are: the New Zealand dollar with 0.31%, the Hungarian forint with 0.22%, the euro with 0.10%, the pound sterling with 0.10%, the Danish crown with 0.08% and the Swiss franc with 0.08 percent.

In the capital market, there are also few changes, with the CAC 40 of France gaining 0.36%, the German DAX with an advance of 0.35% and the FTSE 100 of the United Kingdom with a fall of 0.13%. In the US futures market, the Dow Jones loses 0.07%, the Nasdaq 100 gains 0.02% and the S&P 500 rises 0.01 percent.

As for economic indicators, INEGI published the figures of the Administrative Registry of the Automotive Industry of Heavy Vehicles corresponding to January 2024. In this month, 4,290 heavy vehicles were sold at retail, reaching a historical maximum for a month of January, with an increase of 30.95% compared to the same month of the previous year. For its part, 3,754 vehicles were sold wholesale in the national market, showing an annual growth of 10.35% and also reaching a historical maximum for a month of January. On the other hand, in January 15,587 vehicles were produced, decreasing 16.05% annually. Finally, 11,891 units were exported, 21.88% below the maximum reached in January 2023.

INEGI also published the data of the International Travelers Survey (EVI) corresponding to December 2023, which shows that in the last month of 2023 a total of 7.87 million international visitors entered the country. With this, the total number of visitors that Mexico received in 2023 reached 74.4 million people, showing an increase of 12.76% compared to 2022. However, this figure is 23.60% lower than that recorded in 2019, prior to the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic.

The reason why the number of international visitors does not manage to recover the pre-pandemic levels is due to the entry of international excursionists (those who travel to Mexico but do not stay overnight). In 2019, 52.4 million excursionists entered Mexico, while in 2023 this figure was 32.9 million, which implies a decrease of 32.25%. This could be due to 1) the appreciation of the peso against the dollar, 2) the high inflation in the service sector and 3) the public insecurity in Mexico.

Regarding the spending of tourists, in 2023 international visitors spent 30 billion dollars, showing an increase of 7.03% compared to 2022 and 22.03% compared to 2019. However, considering the variation in the exchange rate and the price level according to the INPC, the real spending in pesos increased 14.75% in the year, but compared to 2019 it decreased 1.45 percent.

In addition to the publication of inflation in the United States, the following will be relevant in the week: 1) mortgage applications on February 14, at 6:00 a.m., 2) retail sales for January, on February 15 at 7:30 a.m., 3) support applications for unemployment of the week, on February 15 at 7:30, 4) industrial production for January, which will be published on February 15 at 8:15 and 5) producer inflation for January, which will be published on February 16 at 7:30 a.m.

In Mexico, the monthly survey of the manufacturing industry for December will be published on February 14 at 6:00 a.m. Finally, in Europe the publication of the GDP for the 4Q and the industrial production for December, on February 14, will be relevant. It should be noted that the markets of China, Taiwan and Vietnam will remain closed this week due to the celebration of the Lunar New Year.

During the session, the exchange rate is expected to trade between 17.01 and 17.13 pesos per dollar.

Money and Debt Market

In the United States, the rate of the Treasury notes at 10 years drops 2.5 basis points, standing at 4.15%. In Mexico, the rate of the M bonds at 10 years rises 1.2 basis points, standing at 9.21 percent.

Derivatives Market

To hedge against a depreciation of the peso beyond 18.00 pesos per dollar, a call option, with an exercise date within a month has a premium of 0.70% and represents the right, but not the obligation to buy dollars at the level mentioned above. On the other hand, the interbank forward for sale is at 17.1268 at one month, 17.5469 at 6 months and 18.0418 pesos per dollar at one year.

Source: Real Estate Market