Mexican officials and advisers anticipate a drastic change in relations with the U.S. should Donald Trump win in November.
ara algunos, lo que predomina es el recuerdo de negociar con Trump durante su mandato, cuando utilizó amenazas extremas contra México.
¿Qué se requirió en ese entonces para llegar a un acuerdo con el equipo de Trump? “Tiempo, paciencia, sangre fría”, dijo en una entrevista el exsecretario de Relaciones Exteriores de México Marcelo Ebrard. “Si entiendes esto, se puede ganar. No es sencillo”.
In Mexico, officials say working with Trump could be even more complex this time around. The former president has promised “the largest deportation operation in American history,” floated the idea of imposing 100 percent tariffs on Chinese cars made in Mexico, and promised to deploy U.S. Special Forces to, according to he said, “wage war against the cartels.”
Behind the scenes, the Mexican government is holding talks with people close to the Trump campaign about some proposals, such as the former president’s threat to impose a “universal tariff” on all imported goods, and is working to resolve trade disagreements before the US elections. , according to a senior Mexican official who was not authorized to speak publicly.
The objective, according to the official, is to leave the next Mexican government as prepared as possible to interact with Trump.
Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador forged a close working relationship with Trump in the early years of his administration, despite Trump’s repeated threats to impose tariffs on Mexico and make the country pay for a wall. frontier.
But López Obrador will leave the presidency when he ends his term after the June presidential election, and polls give a significant lead to his protégé, Claudia Sheinbaum, the former head of government of Mexico City.
The unspoken rules of the relationship between López Obrador and Trump were that Mexico did everything it could on immigration and the White House let him move forward with his national priorities without meddling. That seemed to work for both of them.
The Mexican leader has praised Trump for respecting Mexican sovereignty. Trump, for his part, has called the Mexican president “friend” and “great president.”
But it’s unclear how Trump would relate to either of the two leading presidential candidates.
“With President Trump or President Biden we are going to have good relations,” Sheinbaum said in an interview. “We will always defend Mexico and Mexicans in the United States, and we want a relationship of equality.”
Xóchitl Gálvez, the main opposition candidate, stated that she too could work with either of them as president.
“Obviously I prefer to work with a respectful and courteous gentleman like Joe Biden,” Gálvez told The New York Times. “But in my professional and political life I have also dealt with different versions of masculinities,” she added. It would not be the first time, she said, to confront “a character who has a complicated masculinity. So I can work perfectly with Donald Trump.”
Campaign aides are laying out plans for either outcome.
“I’m not worried, but we are going to be prepared,” said Juan Ramón de la Fuente, a member of Sheinbaum’s team, referring to a possible Trump victory. “We are preparing for both scenarios.”
Regarding migration, “we have to be more effective in reducing irregular crossings,” said De la Fuente, who was recently Mexico’s ambassador to the United Nations and is seen as a potential candidate for foreign secretary in case for Sheinbaum to become president.
But he also pointed out that US laws function as “a not very healthy incentive” that helps drive migration, “because the moment you touch land, you are a candidate for asylum.”
Some Mexican officials believe the country has more influence in its relations with the United States than in the past. The White House has leaned heavily on López Obrador to stem migration at the U.S. southern border, and that cooperation has given Mexico significant influence on one of the most important issues in U.S. politics.
“In structural terms, Mexico is gaining more power relative to the United States,” Ebrard said. The Mexican economy has performed relatively well in recent years, and for the United States, its factories have become an interesting alternative to China.
“Any administration of the United States needs it for its immigration policy,” he stated, referring to Mexico. “Geopolitical tension in some ways favors a stronger Mexico.”
Ebrard, who is part of Sheinbaum’s campaign and is seen as a possible member of his cabinet if he wins, led negotiations with Trump’s advisers when he was in the White House.
In terms of trade, “his priority was labor reform, increasing wages in Mexico,” Ebrard said. That was acceptable to Mexico, because López Obrador’s government had campaigned on a left-wing political platform and had committed to raising Mexican wages.
As for migration, the royal request was much more difficult to satisfy. Trump wanted “a drastic reduction” in border crossings, Ebrard said, but he did not agree with Mexico to invest in ways to address the causes that lead people to migrate.
Still, Mexico was able to pressure the government to take its approach into account, he said.
In December 2018, the Trump administration joined a Mexican-led effort and committed billions of dollars in private and public investments to Central America, although months later the former president moved to cut all aid to the region in response to migrant caravans.
The Mexican government has been criticized for getting too little in return for accepting tens of thousands of asylum seekers returned to Mexico under the Trump-era policy known as “Remain in Mexico.” But his six-year term also had clear victories, including the renegotiation of the free trade agreement with the United States and Canada.
Gálvez argued that the government missed an opportunity to guarantee more rights for undocumented Mexicans in the United States and protect migrants stranded in Mexico, but he also praised the trade agreement.
“In that sense, Mexico won, it won well with Trump,” Gálvez said, adding that Trump never imposed the tariffs he threatened. “It didn’t turn out that bad.”
Source: nytimes
