Rains have been falling in most of Mexico since the second half of June, with the most constant rainfall occurring in the central-southern part of the country. This has greatly helped to reduce the national drought and in August a rebound in rainfall is expected, with plenty of rain.
What systems will be present?
It can be summarized with two systems: the Azores anticyclone in the North Atlantic, stronger than normal, and low pressures dominating Mexico, the Gulf, the western Caribbean and the Mexican Pacific. How can it be interpreted? More rain in Mexico and surrounding areas with the threat of a cyclone.
Similar to what happened at the beginning of July with the impact of Chris and the formation of Beryl with its trajectory, this could be the panorama for this month: not necessarily ensuring a direct impact on the country, but the probability exists, forming cyclones that move from the Caribbean towards the Gulf of Mexico and curve towards our country or the southeastern United States.
Tropical waves could also be more frequent, crossing the central-southern strip of the Mexican Republic, inducing troughs in the Gulf of Mexico with probable periods of great convective activity, that is, heavier than usual rains.
The monsoon will remain active in the Sierra Madre Occidental; it will also be important to monitor the formation of cyclones in front of or near the Pacific coast, after having had a very calm start, this month there could be important named storms. And all this will be strengthened as the active phase of Madden-Julian passes.
General behavior of the rains
Considering the scenarios of the CFSv2, CanSIPS models, ensembles of the GFS and ECMWF, and multimodels of the NMME and C3S, above-normal rains (wetter) would occur in states in the southeast, east, center, south and west, including the Sierra Madre Occidental with rainy storms.
Weekly weather forecast
We will start the month with cyclonic activity in the Pacific with the formation of 1 or 2 cyclones that could move close to the southern coasts. At the same time, tropical waves would move over the central-southern strip, giving way to these possible cyclones. From the Caribbean, a tropical disturbance would be monitored towards the Gulf of Mexico.
In the middle of the month, between August 12 and 20, at least, this instability coming from the Atlantic/Caribbean towards our country could be more noticeable, associated with tropical waves and cyclones, with cyclonic formation also persisting in the South Pacific, along with the monsoon.
By the end of the month, the rains, although there is a tendency to reduce the amount, would continue to be rainy. However, a “path of abundant rains” from the tropical Atlantic towards the Yucatan peninsula stands out on the precipitation maps, perhaps related to the path of tropical cyclones, so the threat will continue for Mexico.
Which states would have the most/least amount of rain?
Those with the most abundant rainfall could be Quintana Roo, Chiapas, Tabasco, Veracruz, Oaxaca, Veracruz, State of Mexico, Mexico City, Morelos, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit and the mountains of Sinaloa, Durango, Sonora and Chihuahua and the Huasteca with 300-600 mm.
It is important to mention that the amount of rain expected is average, and may be much higher locally, especially during the passage of tropical cyclones or interaction of systems, without ruling out up to 1000 mm.
In this “category” could fall the Bajío and the Gulf slope including areas of Guanajuato, Queretaro, Hidalgo, Zacatecas, Aguascalientes, San Luis Potosi, Nuevo Leon and Tamaulipas with 200-400 mm; The rest of the country in the north and southeast is estimated at 50 to 200 mm, with the lowest in Baja California, Baja California Sur and the borders between Chihuahua, Coahuila and Durango.
Temperature behavior
In general, we will continue with the contrast of temperatures, benefiting from coolness in the central-southern half, especially the Altiplano with values close to normal between 15 and 30 °C contrasting with the northern states where it would be warmer than usual from 30 to 40 °C on average, extremes of 40-50 °C in the northwest.
Take extreme precautions: tropical cyclones and heavy rains
It will be important to be aware of the systems that form in the Atlantic and the Caribbean, since they may have a path mainly towards our country and affect us directly or indirectly, so it is recommended to be prepared for any emergency and maintain the emergency plan.
The rains will also have periods with torrential events that cause flooding, river overflows, landslides or collapses and dangerous currents, it is recommended to keep important documents stored in bags, identify shelters and evacuation routes, clean our streets, drains and repair our home, among others.
Source: meteored
