On April 2, Donald Trump unleashed a global trade storm by imposing tariffs on almost every country in the world, but Mexico escaped widespread punishment thanks to the exemption of products that comply with the USMCA. This suddenly made our country the least affected and most competitive exporter to the United States.
This advantage, however, was not the result of a long-term strategy, but rather the pragmatism of a volatile president who, for now, decided not to break the treaty he himself promoted, out of calculation rather than affection. And this advantageous situation is very fragile: if he decides to reinterpret the USMCA or use it as political leverage, Mexico could go from exception to target in weeks.
The Mexican economy is currently enjoying a respite that neither Europe nor Asia have. A Japanese car has risen by $7,000; a Mexican one, barely $500. A Chinese television costs $670; A Mexican export, 500. This difference is already generating a repositioning of our exports, and nearshoring finds in Mexico unique conditions of proximity and preferential access.
Something similar is happening with food. Avocados, beer, and berries have been in high demand in the US since last week, as European and South American agricultural products have become more expensive. But Mexican producers face capacity limits, transportation shortages, and a lack of labor. In the north, a meat exporter confessed that he is considering importing Brazilian meat and exporting it as Mexican, although he knows that, if caught, he could face heavy sanctions. That’s how strong the pressure is to take advantage of the situation.
In just two days, the world’s stock markets lost between $5 and $9 trillion. In the US, the S&P 500 fell just over $5 trillion. These declines reflect a severe blow to the global economy: lower corporate profits, inflation due to expensive inputs, unemployment, and a growing risk of recession. For savers, this means a loss in the value of their pensions. For everyone, it means less purchasing power and more uncertainty.
And Mexico remains vulnerable: 83% of its exports depend on the US; between 10 and 15% of them already face barriers; steel and aluminum pay tariffs; and a potential US recession, in addition to the fall in national GDP, will generate unemployment and reduce remittances.
Furthermore, the country has not resolved its internal weaknesses. Without investment in logistics, legal security, and energy, nearshoring could go elsewhere. Without real market diversification, we will continue to be exposed to every electoral tantrum from Trump and his successors.
The tariff exception is an opportunity, not a guarantee. If the Mexican government and private sector act quickly, in a coordinated manner, and with vision, they can translate this temporary advantage into a new cycle of growth. If not, the country will remain trapped in an exhausted model: exporting cheaply, importing dearly, and depending on the words of a US president.
Trump unwittingly gave us a break. In my previous columns, I emphasized that Mexico is the least affected and that we must seize the opportunities. That, on my part, isn’t optimism; it’s a cold-blooded analysis of a reality that can change at any moment.
Source: imagenzac
