Although at first it seems like a remote possibility, the effects of a nuclear explosion can extend far beyond the site where it occurs, depending on various factors such as the location of the attack, atmospheric conditions, and the magnitude of the detonation.
But what would be the closest scenario?
The closest military base to the Mexican border is Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, located in Tucson, Arizona, just over 1,000 kilometers north of the city of Durango. This installation is one of the most important for the United States Air Force and houses a large fleet of combat aircraft, drones, and strategic systems, making it a potential target in a large-scale conflict.
If a nuclear detonation were to occur at that base, the direct effects—such as the blast wave, heat, or immediate radiation—would not reach Durango due to the distance.
However, indirect impacts could be felt.
What are the potential effects in Durango?
- Population and Public Health
Although the city of Durango would not be in the direct impact zone, a radioactive cloud (fallout) could travel hundreds of kilometers if wind conditions were unfavorable. This would raise radiation levels in areas in the north of the country. However, the probability of radioactive particles reaching Durango is low, especially if the detonation occurs in the air (not at ground level, where more contaminated dust is generated).
In extreme cases, a preventive health alert could be issued, with the suspension of outdoor activities and surveillance of water, food, and livestock.
- Wildlife and Ecosystems
Local wildlife could be affected if bodies of water or soil were contaminated, especially in grassland areas, nature reserves, or farmland. Even so, since Durango is located south of the air base, the effects on biodiversity would be minimal, unless the radioactive cloud were particularly intense and directed toward north-central Mexico.
- Economic and Social Impact
One of the most immediate effects would be the closure of the Mexico-US border, or at least severe restrictions on land and air traffic. This would affect:
Bilateral trade.
The supply of supplies and merchandise to Durango stores.
Tourism, commercial flights, and international services.
Exchange rate and price stability.
A sudden influx of migrants from the north is also anticipated, especially from Chihuahua, Sonora, and Baja California, which would put pressure on health and safety services in states in the north and center of the country.
Source: elsiglodedurango
