The peso began the session with an appreciation of 0.21%, or 3.9 centavos, trading around 18.38 pesos per dollar, with the exchange rate reaching a high of 18.4917 and a low of 18.3850 pesos per dollar. The peso’s appreciation occurred alongside a 0.12% weakening of the US dollar, according to its weighted index.
The exchange rate is trading with an initial appreciation, but is still affected by external factors.
However, compared to Friday’s close, the Mexican peso has depreciated by 0.58%, mainly due to statements made yesterday by US President Donald Trump, who stated that he “would be okay” with authorizing military strikes in Mexico to stop the flow of drugs into his country. Trump added that he would seek congressional approval before taking any action and indicated that he is “not happy with Mexico,” comments that increased local risk aversion and weakened the Mexican peso.
There is also a heightened global risk aversion following China’s announcement of measures against Japan in response to statements by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who raised the possibility of using armed forces in a potential conflict in Taiwan due to a perceived threat to Japanese territory. The Chinese government demanded that Takaichi retract her comments, calling them “extremely dangerous,” and warned that Japan “will pay a painful price” if it intervenes militarily in the Taiwan Strait.
Furthermore, China’s Foreign Ministry advised its citizens against traveling to Japan, noting that Chinese tourists account for approximately 25% of all foreign visitors to the country. Several Chinese airlines have suspended flights to Japan and are offering refunds, while numerous travel agencies have canceled their tour packages. Finally, China has threatened significant economic retaliation if Japan deploys troops to the region and has intensified its negative propaganda campaign against Japanese products and companies, seeking to discourage their consumption.
Today, Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi said he will send a senior diplomat to China to clarify the Prime Minister’s statements. However, Motegi noted that Japan is monitoring China’s actions and will “take appropriate measures as needed,” while also emphasizing the importance of maintaining communication between the two countries. Meanwhile, the Japanese government urged its citizens to remain vigilant. The conflict between Asia’s two largest economies is generating nervousness about Japan’s economic situation, which has driven up its government bond yields.
The yield on Japan’s 10-year bonds has risen for four consecutive sessions, reaching a session high of 1.761%, its highest level since June 20, 2008. The yield on the 30-year bond also reached a session high of 3.351%, its highest level on record.
At the start of the week, Japan’s third-quarter GDP figures were released, showing an annualized quarterly contraction of 1.8%, its largest decline since the first quarter of 2014. Bond yields also rose amid expectations that the Japanese government will implement fiscal stimulus due to the deteriorating economic activity, which could put further upward pressure on inflation. In fact, the ruling party proposed a supplementary spending package equivalent to $161 billion today, aimed at providing fiscal stimulus, although this has not yet been approved.
This morning, the United States released initial jobless claims for the week ending October 18, which totaled 232,000, up from the previous figure of 219,000 in September. It’s important to note that weekly data for the first weeks of October were not released, so only the data for the week ending October 18 is available. Meanwhile, continuing jobless claims reached 1.957 million for the same week, their highest level since the first week of August. For comparison, continuing claims for the same week last year totaled 1.855 million, representing a 5.50% year-over-year increase and marking 141 consecutive weeks of growth in the annualized rate.
The global stock market is showing sharp losses due to concerns about the trade conflict between Japan and China. In the Asian session, Japan’s Nikkei fell 3.22%, its biggest loss since April 9. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 1.72%, and Shanghai’s CSI 300 declined 0.65%. In Europe, the STOXX 600 fell 1.42%, Germany’s DAX lost 1.51%, France’s CAC 40 dropped 1.43%, and London’s FTSE 100 lost 1.46%.
Meanwhile, in the futures market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.82%, the Nasdaq 100 lost 0.80%, and the S&P 500 declined 0.66%. This week, the capital markets will be focused on the release of Nvidia’s quarterly report, the world’s largest company by market capitalization, tomorrow after the close.
In the commodities market, gold opened trading at $4,035 per ounce, down 0.20 percent. Gold has now lost four consecutive sessions, accumulating a 3.81% decline, as the market continues to dismiss the possibility of an interest rate cut by the Fed at its December 10 meeting due to hawkish comments from some Fed members.
Conversely, oil opened the session with little change, trading at $59.94 per barrel, up just 0.05 percent. Oil prices showed a slight rebound after hitting a low of $59.31 per barrel overnight, as the market remains cautious following last week’s escalating fears of a potential global oversupply that could intensify next year.
Sheinbaum also noted that a new digital slot management system will become operational in 2026, which, according to Sheinbaum, will improve competition and distribution among airlines. Finally, she mentioned that they will continue dialogue with the United States to maintain competitiveness in the market.
On another note, according to Russia’s agricultural safety watchdog, 58,000 metric tons of wheat have been shipped to Mexico, a significant decrease compared to shipments in 2023 and 2024. With this, Russia is seeking to diversify its grain export markets toward Latin America, Asia, and Africa, moving away from its traditional routes in the Middle East.
Regarding economic indicators, the Monthly Survey of Manufacturing Industries (EMIM) for September 2025 showed that total manufacturing employment decreased by 0.15% compared to the previous month, marking the eighth consecutive month of decline according to the seasonally adjusted series. This had not occurred since the period between March 2008 and May 2009, when employment fell for 15 consecutive months. With this, the total employment indicator shows a year-on-year contraction of 2.55%, marking 31 consecutive months of decline.
At the subsector level, the steepest year-on-year declines were observed in: transportation equipment manufacturing (-7.56%), printing and related industries (-5.76%), machinery and equipment manufacturing (-4.73%), textile input and finishing manufacturing (-4.63%), basic metal industries (-3.72%), and apparel manufacturing (-3.63%). The decline in manufacturing employment, particularly in transportation equipment manufacturing and basic metal industries, is due to lower production in both subsectors following the imposition of sectoral tariffs on imports in the United States. Although the decline in transportation equipment employment slowed from 8.25% in August, it remains a significant drop and close to the largest decline observed during the pandemic in June 2020 (-8.58%). According to the EMIM (Monthly Employment Survey), as of September, transportation equipment manufacturing accounted for 17.82% of total employment, and basic metal industries for 1.82%, representing a combined total of 19.64%.
Source: realstatemarket
