The State Government has moved up the convening of the State Civil Protection Council, warning that the forecast from the National Water Commission (Conagua) anticipates an intense hurricane season for the Pacific Ocean.
Julio Villarreal Trasviña, Conagua’s Director in Baja California Sur, explained that while an average of 15 cyclones are expected to form each season, this year’s forecast indicates that the number of meteorological events could range between 18 and 21.
According to current models, changes in sea surface temperatures suggest that the El Niño phenomenon will be present in the Pacific. This context could explain the projected increase in the number of hurricanes and tropical storms in this region of the globe.
Julio Villarreal specified that the forecast calls for 9 to 10 tropical storms; 5 to 6 Category 1 and 2 hurricanes; and 4 to 5 Category 3, 4, and 5 hurricanes.
The names to be assigned to these systems as they emerge are as follows: Amanda, Boris, Cristina, Douglas, Elidas, Fausto, Genevieve, Hernan, Iselle, Julio, Karina, Lowell, Marie, Norbert, Odalys, Polo, Rachel, Simón, Trudy, Vance, Winnie, Xavier, Yolanda, and Zeke.
Given this scenario, the federal official noted that Baja California Sur remains the state with the highest probability of being impacted by cyclones within the entire Mexican Republic, with a likelihood of 13.8 percent.
This figure is based on the fact that 174 meteorological events have made landfall on national territory between 1964 and 2025—an average of three hurricanes and/or tropical storms per year.
Furthermore, Villarreal Trasviña shared that, based on data spanning from 1950 to 2025, September is the month with the highest cyclone activity, recording a total of 113 events. These are followed by October with 85, June with 52, August with 49, July with 24, November with 11, and May with 9.
For their part, local authorities noted that in the case of Baja California Sur, August, September, and October are the months of highest activity.
State Governor Víctor Castro Cosío emphasized that the conditions specific to the state necessitate early preparation, as there is a clear difference between the impacts the peninsula experiences during this season compared to the rest of the continental mainland.
For this reason, the governor urged the population not to neglect preventive measures and to heed the instructions issued by the relevant agencies, appealing to the culture of civil protection that prevails during this time of year.
“The announcement we have received serves as a warning; we do not wish to cause alarm, but rather to alert the public. Our organizational approach will be different, because the forecast itself is different,” the governor stated.
Source: zetatijuana
