If we take into account the series of strong earthquakes recorded in South America during 2026, the possibility of Mexico experiencing an earthquake in September, as has become a perceived “tradition,” might seem to increase. However, beyond popular perception, it is important to note that there are different tools and measurement indicators that can determine, if it were possible, the probability of a seismic event occurring in Mexico in the coming days.
The “Background” of Earthquakes Between June and August in Latin America
On August 10, 2026, a magnitude 7.4 earthquake struck western Colombia. Venezuela, meanwhile, experienced a sequence of strong earthquakes on June 24, initially estimated at magnitudes 7.1 and 7.5. And on August 20, Peru recorded a powerful earthquake in the Ayacucho region: the Geophysical Institute of Peru initially reported it as magnitude 7.2, while the USGS estimated it at 6.7.
Does This Increase the Risk for Mexico?
We cannot say that it does. The earthquakes in Colombia, Venezuela, and Peru are related to the tectonic dynamics of South America, but that does not mean they are “pushing” a rupture toward Mexico. The explanation lies in the Pacific Ring of Fire, a vast zone of interaction between tectonic plates. Mexico, Central America, and South America share parts of this system, but they involve different plate boundaries, faults, and subduction mechanisms.
Therefore, a strong earthquake in Peru does not mathematically predict that another earthquake will occur in Mexico days or weeks later. In fact, the National Seismological Service of UNAM states that Mexico is a seismically active country and maintains continuous monitoring of recorded movements.
What About September?
This is where things become particularly interesting. September does have a notable history of strong earthquakes in Mexico, but that does not mean the month has any special geological property. Since 2017, several Mexican earthquakes with magnitudes above 7 have occurred in September. These include:
- The magnitude 8.2 earthquake on September 7, 2017.
- The magnitude 7.1 earthquake on September 19, 2017.
- The magnitude 7.4 earthquake on September 7, 2021.
This has contributed to the perception that September is a “month of earthquakes.” However, the coincidence of these dates does not allow scientists to predict an earthquake for September 2026. Even the fact that significant earthquakes have occurred at different locations across the continent this year does not change that conclusion.
What Should Actually Concern Us?
The question should not be so much, “Will there be an earthquake in Mexico in September?” but rather, “Is Mexico prepared for another strong earthquake?” The reality is that seismic risk exists throughout the entire year.
A study published in Seismological Research Letters indicates that earthquakes with magnitudes greater than 7 in Mexico have historically occurred approximately every two years on average. However, a statistical average does not mean that an earthquake must occur every specific number of months, nor can it be used to predict a specific date.
Additionally, Mexico experienced a magnitude 7.3 earthquake off the Pacific coast in July 2026, according to reports based on USGS data.
What Does the Recent Activity in South America Tell Us?
The most accurate conclusion is that 2026 is once again demonstrating the enormous tectonic activity of the Pacific Ring of Fire, rather than showing a chain of earthquakes moving toward Mexico.
The August 20 earthquake in Peru is a good example. Although the Geophysical Institute of Peru initially estimated it at 7.2, the USGS placed it at 6.7 and at considerable depth, which helped reduce its destructive effects.
Therefore, the earthquakes in Peru, Colombia, and Venezuela do not allow scientists to calculate a specific probability of an earthquake occurring in Mexico in September. Science can identify areas with greater seismic hazard and study the accumulation of tectonic energy, but it cannot say that after certain earthquakes in South America, a major earthquake will necessarily occur in Mexico.
Source: informador
