The race for critical minerals has already begun. While the world’s major economies compete to secure access to the minerals needed for new technologies, Mexico has halted the incorporation of new reserves and is concentrating public exploration on traditional minerals.
The delay threatens to limit the country’s ability to take advantage of global demand that is growing at an accelerated pace and has already turned rare earths and other critical minerals into strategic assets.
Pressure for these resources is increasing as the manufacturing of electric vehicles, batteries, data centers, power grids, wind turbines, and other technologies expands. Worldwide, lithium demand increased by nearly 30% in one year, above the annual growth rate of 10% recorded during the 2010s. Demand for nickel, cobalt, graphite, and rare earths also grew by between 6% and 8%, according to market research firm Fact.MR.
The increase has led countries such as China and the United States to seek greater control over territories, reserves, supply chains, and mining projects considered strategic. The dispute is no longer limited to who has the capacity to process these materials, but also to who can secure the reserves needed to sustain production for decades to come.
China starts with an advantage. The country dominates a large part of the global rare earth supply chain, from extraction to processing, and has used that position to reinforce its strategic importance in a market that is essential to industries such as automotive, electronics, defense, and energy generation.
Mexico, by contrast, has taken a different path. Although it has resources that are included on the United States’ list of critical minerals and has indications of rare earths in at least 11 states, it currently has no rare earth mines in commercial production, and the private sector has stopped receiving new concessions to explore the national territory since the 2023 reform of the Mining Law.
In fact, last February, the Ministry of Economy reported that 1,126 concessions had been recovered, representing 889,512 hectares, an area almost equivalent to the territorial size of Querétaro.
The change transferred responsibility for investigating and exploring new areas with mining potential to the State. The only entity currently able to carry out this activity directly is the Mexican Geological Service (SGM), which receives exploration orders from the Ministry of Economy.
Exploration focused on traditional minerals
The scope of public exploration illustrates the challenge. According to Flor de María Harp, director general of the SGM, there are currently three areas under development: Delia, in Sonora; La Soledad, between Sinaloa and Durango; and Las Granadas, in the State of Mexico.
None of the three corresponds to a rare earth project.
Delia is located between the municipalities of Puerto Peñasco and Plutarco Elías Calles, in Sonora, and the expectation is to locate gold. La Soledad extends between Badiraguato, Sinaloa, and Tamazula, Durango, with indications of gold, copper, molybdenum, and tungsten.
Las Granadas, in the State of Mexico, includes municipalities such as Almoloya de Alquisiras, Amatepec, Luvianos, Temascaltepec, Tejupilco, Tescaltitlán, San Simón de Guerrero, and Sultepec de Pedro Ascencio de Alquisiras, where the search is for lead, zinc, copper, gold, and silver.
“We are finishing the meters we have planned this year for drilling in the State of Mexico; in Delia we are beginning drilling, and in La Soledad we are waiting for approval of the EIA (Environmental Impact Assessment),” Harp explained in an interview with Expansión.
The exploration orders were delivered by the Ministry of Economy to the SGM in August 2025. However, the work is progressing at a limited pace due to the very nature of mining activity, which requires years of studies before determining whether a deposit contains sufficient resources and, above all, whether it can be profitably exploited.
“We have work scheduled for several years. For example, next year we have drilling programs for other areas within the same zone,” Harp said.
Initially, the SGM had requested four exploration orders, although one was ultimately discarded.
The problem is that the time required for exploration contrasts with the speed at which international demand is increasing for minerals that will be necessary for new technologies. Finding a deposit does not mean having a mine; several years can pass between the two.
Three years without new concessions
For private companies, the entry point was reduced to a much more limited mechanism following the 2023 Mining Law reform. If a company has information about the existence of minerals in a non-concessioned area, it must notify the Ministry of Economy, which will determine whether it is feasible to conduct joint exploration and, if appropriate, order the SGM to carry it out.
The agreement may be valid for up to five years and cannot be extended. If the work confirms the existence of resources and their economic viability, the company may subsequently participate in the bidding process to obtain the concession, provided it meets the requirements and submits an offer of at least 90% of the highest proposal.
The system has reduced the space for mining companies to assume the financial risk of exploration on their own, a stage that requires substantial investment and can ultimately end without finding an economically exploitable deposit.
According to Harp, the possibility of incorporating the private sector into exploration activities falls under the responsibility of the Ministry of Economy.
“We only generate geological, geophysical, and cartographic information that contributes to locating deposits, evaluating them, and determining whether they are economically viable,” she said.
The problem, according to specialists, is that time is working against Mexico. Karina Rodríguez Matus, a partner at Rodríguez-Matus & Feregrino, believes that mining exploration in the country has been halted for around three years and that the SGM’s progress remains limited compared with the sector’s needs.
“Exploration can take 5 or 10 years; it is not a quick activity because it involves many studies and resources, so it will still take time before there can be a bidding process [based on the results of SGM exploration],” she said in an interview.
Furthermore, a concession does not automatically mean that a mine exists. After locating a deposit, additional exploration studies and investigations must still be conducted, permits must be obtained, and it must be demonstrated that extraction is economically viable.
For this reason, the current slowdown in exploration may have consequences that are not immediately visible in production figures, but that will appear when currently operating mines begin to deplete their reserves and there are no new projects ready to replace them.
“There are no new projects. The numbers are growing because prices are very high and instead of selling at 5, they sell at 10; but the problem is volume because there are no new projects. Exploration is just as important as pharmaceutical research for growth,” Rodríguez Matus stated.
Mexico does have critical minerals, but it needs new reserves
The World Economic Forum defines critical minerals as those that are essential to the modern economy and to technologies such as batteries, electric vehicles, wind turbines, solar panels, and energy infrastructure, but whose acquisition may face difficulties.
Mexico has a presence in part of this market. According to the Mining Development Trust Fund, under the Ministry of Economy, the country produces eight minerals considered critical under the United States’ classification: fluorspar, zinc, copper, silver, lead, graphite, antimony, and barite.
These resources are joined by indications of rare earths in Sonora, Oaxaca, Chihuahua, Coahuila, Durango, Hidalgo, Chiapas, Guanajuato, Jalisco, Sinaloa, and Tamaulipas. However, the country currently does not have a mine for these elements in active commercial production.
There is also lithium, another mineral whose international demand is experiencing one of the highest growth rates. Mexico has deposits of the resource within its territory, but it still lacks the technology necessary to exploit it on a commercial scale.
The risk is not only losing an export opportunity. The availability of critical minerals has also become a component of industrial competitiveness. Countries that secure reserves, processing capacity, and supply chains will be in a more favorable position to attract investment related to electric vehicles, energy storage, electronics, artificial intelligence, and electrical infrastructure.
In this scenario, exploration is the first link. Without new discoveries there are no new reserves; without reserves there are no new projects, and without projects it is difficult to increase production.
Source: expansion
