The countdown is on. The general elections of June 2 represent a crucial moment in the history of democracy in Mexico, not only because just over 98 million Mexicans are called to the polls or because 20,708 public positions are at stake throughout the country.
These elections are particularly relevant due to the political and social context that Mexico is going through and because, according to specialists, Mexicans will vote for the continuity of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s policies or for a change of government.
This is a review of the reasons why these elections have special significance.
First female president
For the first time in the history of Mexico, two women are the main contenders to lead the second largest economy in Latin America: Claudia Sheinbaum, from the ruling coalition Let’s Keep Making History; and Xóchitl Gálvez, from the opposition coalition Fuerza y Corazón por México.
Mitofsky’s most recent household survey – administered from May 3 to 6 to 1,600 adults residing throughout the country and with voting credentials – says that Sheinbaum continues to lead with 48.9% of voting intentions, 20 .8 percentage points advantage in gross terms compared to Gálvez. This is a slight decrease compared to the April measurement.
“We are sure that we will have a female president for the first time and that is important because of all the symbolic weight it implies in a country where gender violence has not been reduced, unfortunately,” said political analyst Palmira Tapia. “In terms of discourse and message it is very powerful for the younger generations,” she added.
For international analyst Arlene Ramírez Uresti “it is practically imminent that Mexico will have its first female president and that, without a doubt, sends an interesting message for Latin America.”
For her part, Mariana Linares Cruz, co-founder of Auna, a platform that promotes new political representations with women’s leadership, agreed on the positive aspects of seeing a woman candidate who has her political rights assured, in terms of representation for the rest of the women.
However, specialists agree that it is not enough for a woman to be in charge of the executive branch, but it will be necessary for her to have an agenda with a gender perspective and a particular interest in solving the problems that women experience.
“The important thing is that she is a woman with her own voice, that she governs with a gender perspective and marks a watershed in the history of the country with the reduction of femicides, disappearances and that the conditions of women improve,” said Ramírez Uresti.
Historical participation of women
This will be the first time that there will be gender parity among the candidates due to a constitutional reform approved in 2019, which will change the representation of women in decisions about the country’s public life.
The law of parity in everything ensures that “half of the decision-making positions are for women in the three powers of the State (executive, legislative and judicial), in autonomous organizations, in the candidacies of political parties for elected positions. popular, as well as in the election of representatives to city councils in municipalities with indigenous populations; In addition, language that makes women visible and includes is incorporated.”
According to data from the National Electoral Institute (INE), there are currently nine states headed by a woman: Guerrero, Baja California, Colima, State of Mexico, Campeche, Tlaxcala, Aguascalientes, Chihuahua and Quintana Roo. In the case of Yucatán, the acting governor is also a woman.
In the elections on June 2, eight governorships and the head of Government of Mexico City will be renewed, so there must be at least five female candidates for these positions.
Furthermore, the electoral roll is made up of more women than men. According to the INE, there are 51,103,424 women, 48,226,062 men and 105 non-binary people.
Electoral violence
The current electoral process in Mexico is already the most violent on record with 34 candidates or applicants murdered from June 2023 to May 23, according to a report by the Electoral Laboratory organization.
This figure exceeds the 24 murdered candidates reported in the 2018 electoral process, which according to the firm “confirms that the violence associated with the elections has had a worrying increasing trend.”
On the same date, the organization has also recorded 272 attacks on candidates and people related to the current electoral process. Of these, 82 were murders, of which 34 were candidates for elected office, in addition to 17 kidnappings, 65 attacks and 108 threats.
“This is a crucial moment for organized crime to influence who is going to be in power, who is going to provide protection, information, resources,” said Sandra Ley, director of the security program at México Evalúa, a think tank. public politics.
As political attacks increase, Mexican leaders have promised a swift manhunt and launched an effort to protect imperiled candidates with armed escorts. However, some analysts and party officials warn that the violence has already cooled some campaigns; and dozens of candidates from several states have renounced their candidacies fearing for their lives.
More than 20,000 public positions at stake
The 2024 election is described as “the largest in the history of Mexico” both due to the positions that are elected and the number of voters called to the polls.
According to data from the INE, the nominal list is made up of 98,329,591 voters, which represents almost 9 million more people than in the 2018 general elections.
In addition, those who are in preventive detention without a sentence could vote anywhere in the country, from May 6 to 20, and there will be early voting for those who, due to some disability or physical limitation, cannot go to a polling station on the day of the vote. vote.
20,708 popularly elected positions are at stake. Among them, the Presidency of the Republic will be renewed, as well as the Congress of the Union: 128 senators and 500 deputies. Of the senators, 64 will be elected by the principle of relative majority, 32 by the principle of proportional representation and the remaining 32 are first minority. Governors will be elected in eight states: Chiapas, Guanajuato, Jalisco, Morelos, Puebla, Tabasco, Veracruz and Yucatán; as well as the headquarters of Mexico City.
In 29 entities, municipal presidencies or city councils will be renewed; and in the capital the new heads of the 16 mayoralties will be elected.
Migration
The immigration issue occupies a prominent place on the national and international agenda and will be one of the main challenges faced by whoever wins the presidential elections.
The head of mission of the International Organization for Migration (IOM) in Mexico, Dana Graber Ladek, told CNN that the country will face an increasing number of people arriving in Mexico as a destination or transit country.
In 2023, the National Migration Institute (INM) recorded 782,176 encounters of irregular migrants in Mexico, which represented an increase of 77% compared to 2022, when 441,409 arrivals were recorded. That figure included 113,660 minors under 18 years of age, which meant an increase of 60% compared to the previous year, with 71,206 registrations.
Myriam Guadalupe Castro Yáñez, an academic at the National School of Social Work of the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM), agrees that the number of migrants crossing Mexico’s southern border will represent a great challenge because the country has the three modalities of migratory flow: transit, origin and destination.
He added that Mexico will also continue to face external policies such as the controversial Texas law – signed into law by Governor Greg Abbott last December, which allows state officials to detain people suspected of having entered the United States illegally and order their deportation – which is suspended while a federal court analyzes its legality.
The López Obrador Government has warned that it will not receive people deported by Texas under the law known as SB4 and that it will only discuss immigration issues with the federal government. The candidates Claudia Sheinbaum and Xóchitl Gálvez agree with this position.
The experts consulted by CNN highlight the importance of authorities ensuring access to services and security that migrants need and improving their existing conditions in the country’s immigration stations, as well as providing them with access to information and legal defense.
Source: cnnespanol
