Autonomous University of Nayarit (UAN) meteorologist Jerusalem Ceja clarified that there is no risk of a tropical cyclone impacting the states of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, Michoacán, or Guerrero, in reference to the upcoming formation of “Alvin,” the first tropical phenomenon of the current 2025 hurricane season.
Currently, meteorological authorities are monitoring a tropical disturbance located off the southern coasts of Guerrero and Michoacán, which could give rise to the first tropical depression or storm of the 2025 season in the Pacific Ocean. This system, identified as Tropical Disturbance 90E, has a high probability of intensifying and, if it reaches tropical storm status, would be named “Alvin.”
According to the Pacific Meteorological Center, at 12:00 p.m. (Central Mexico Time) this Tuesday, the disturbance was located at 12.8 degrees north latitude and 101.4 degrees west longitude, 475 kilometers south of Acapulco, Guerrero, and 575 kilometers south of Lázaro Cárdenas, Michoacán. It has maximum sustained winds of 37 kilometers per hour and is moving rapidly at 15 kilometers per hour (9.3 mph) northwestward (310 degrees).
No direct impact threat to Mexican coasts
Although the disturbance is expected to become a tropical depression or tropical storm overnight while moving parallel to the coasts of Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco, meteorologists do not expect it to pose a significant direct impact threat to the states of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, or Nayarit.
The Pacific Meteorological Center explained that as the system moves toward the coasts of Nayarit, Baja California Sur, and Sinaloa, it will rapidly weaken. This is due to two main factors: the relatively cool waters of the Pacific in that region and the presence of unfavorable atmospheric conditions for its development, specifically the intensification of upper-level winds, known as wind shear, which tends to disrupt cyclones.
The circulation of this disturbance will favor increased rainfall and storms in western and southern Mexico. Authorities remain vigilant and will continue to provide updated information on the development of this system.
Source: tribunadelabahia
