It is undeniable that the world is undergoing a large-scale transformation, and constant armed conflicts, as well as the intensification of threats to the global economy, are leading people to reflect on possible futures for society.
Artificial Intelligence, with its ability to understand and analyze information from around the world, allows us to imagine a complex future and answer the big question: what would happen to Mexico if a Third World War broke out?
This edition used Google’s artificial intelligence tool, Gemini. Its interesting responses allow us to explore different scenarios that Mexicans can consider in the face of a possible future that is increasingly approaching.
If a Third World War were to break out, AI says that Mexico would not likely be a direct protagonist on the battlefield, but it would be deeply affected in many ways.
Among the lists of possible consequences, Gemini offers a list of impacts on the economy, society, security, and people, as well as a vision of the diplomatic role that Mexico would play internationally. Additionally, it details three elements at the end that the country must consider due to its geographic proximity to the United States (a world military power) and the impact on natural resources.
Economic Impact
According to Artificial Intelligence, a world war would result in unstable economic markets, causing general inflation across all industries. Furthermore, two of the country’s main sources of income would collapse: tourism and foreign investment. It also points out the role this nation would play in the supply crisis.
Widespread Inflation. A global war would drive up the prices of food, fertilizers, technology, and vehicles, as global supply chains would be blocked. Mexico would not have the capacity to quickly replace imported raw materials.
For example, in 2023, annual inflation in Mexico reached 8.7%, the highest in more than two decades, foreshadowing how a global conflict could further exacerbate this trend.
Decline in Tourism and Foreign Investment. Global insecurity and inflation would drive away tourists and investors. According to Gemini, the powers would allocate their resources to war, and Mexico would be unable to compete with that level of spending.
Tourism represents nearly 8% of Mexico’s GDP, with more than 45 million visitors in 2022, so a sharp decline would seriously affect the economy.
Unstable financial markets. The AI warns that the Mexican peso could devalue. This would raise interest rates due to capital flight, in a domino effect caused by financial panic and investment outflows.
Supply crisis: There would be gasoline shortages due to a lack of imports, forcing refineries to operate at their limits and making production more expensive. There would also be shortages of fertilizer and medicines, forcing Mexicans to produce what is needed domestically.
Impact on remittances. Job insecurity for Mexicans abroad could reduce the sending of remittances, cutting off a key source of income for many families in the country.
Social and Humanitarian Impact
According to Artificial Intelligence, Mexico would experience a migration crisis as it receives endless groups of migrants and refugees from conflict zones. This situation would jeopardize social services, the national economy, and public safety.
With more than 200,000 asylum applications in 2024, Mexico is already facing increasing pressure on its social and security services.
Furthermore, it could cause a sharp divide in public opinion, fueling social and political polarization, while misinformation would reach unprecedented levels.
Unemployment and social crisis would be part of everyday life for ordinary people, as the global economic slowdown would severely impact industry, tourism, and services, and affect the country’s domestic economy.
Diplomatic and Security Position
Neutrality at Risk. Historically, Mexico has maintained a foreign policy of non-intervention and neutrality (Estrada Doctrine). However, in a global conflict of such magnitude, this neutrality could be unsustainable, especially if the United States pressures Mexico to align with its interests.
Strengthened border control. The United States would likely intensify control of its border with Mexico to manage migration and security.
Risk of cyberattacks. Although Mexico is not directly involved in the conflict, its critical infrastructure (electricity, banking, water) could be targeted by cyberattacks as part of hybrid warfare.
Militarization. The Mexican armed forces could be reinforced, and special measures or restrictions could be approved in the country (such as a curfew or the temporary suspension of certain civil liberties).
Specific Considerations
In its final section, the AI makes specific warnings about the future of Mexico, due to its proximity to the United States and the future of the natural resources that abound in our country and that we could lose.
Regarding its proximity to the United States. Mexico’s geographic proximity to the United States makes our nation inherently vulnerable to any indirect and even direct effects of a conflict involving the neighboring superpower. Mexico could become a strategic focal point for the United States, making it a potential target.
Mexico’s dependence on key imports is high: it imports around 80% of its natural gas and more than 50% of its medicines, making it vulnerable to disruptions in global trade.
Natural resources. Mexico has a vast diversity of natural resources, particularly oil, natural gas, strategic minerals, as well as a series of ecosystems and biodiversity unique in the world. However, its dependence on imports—such as gasoline and refined products—is very high, making it highly vulnerable to disruptions in global trade.
Therefore, Gemini does not believe that World War III would be a good scenario for Mexico; quite the opposite. A conflict of this nature would be catastrophic for the country, despite its policy of neutrality.
This country would face a severe economic, social, and humanitarian crisis, and its internal stability could be compromised by geopolitical pressures and the consequences of a global conflict.
Despite the bleak outlook, in response to the final request to the AI to state what aspects Mexicans could have to talk about a less bleak future for Mexico, Gemini offered the following text:
“Even in the face of such a challenging outlook, it is crucial to remember that the resilience of the Mexican people, their creativity, and their spirit of collaboration would be fundamental pillars. Although the future is uncertain, the adaptability, community solidarity, and ingenuity of Mexicans have proven to be powerful tools for overcoming adversity.
By being informed and prepared, as this exploration with AI allows us, we can strengthen our response capacity and build a path toward hope, even in the most complex scenarios.”
Source: elmanana
