With the 2027 elections just a year away, the territorial dominance of Morena and its allies is facing its first serious cracks. Although the “Morena machine” maintains federal control, it seems that the strain caused by internal divisions within the 4T movement and the potential for opposition alliances are putting the party in a difficult position in at least six of the 17 governorships up for grabs.
LaEncuesta.mx conducted a survey showing that the ruling coalition could suffer key defeats if opposition parties, and even allies, form alliances. Here is a map of the states where Morena is walking a tightrope.
San Luis Potosí and a possible split with the Green Party
The Green Party’s stronghold is perhaps the most critical point for the Morena-PVEM alliance, which is in danger of breaking down due to the anti-nepotism clause.
The state governed by Ricardo Gallardo has put the coalition at a crossroads, as the Green Party (PVEM) is promoting Senator Ruth González Silva—the governor’s wife—as its candidate to lead the coalition.
Even within the Green Party, the possibility of running independently for governor has been raised should Morena not support the senator, who is currently leading in the race.
Against this backdrop, LaEncuesta.mx presents a coalition scenario: If the Green Party joins a grand coalition with the PAN and MC parties, they would garner 53.1% of the vote, leaving Morena-PT with a distant 33.8%.
Should the potential split between Morena and the Green Party materialize, and the latter opt to form a grand opposition coalition with the PAN and MC parties, this alliance would reach 53.1% of the vote, leaving the Morena-PT alliance far behind with only 33.8%.
Another alternative scenario is also presented where a hypothetical alliance between the PAN and PRI parties (33.2%) would defeat the Morena-PT coalition (31.9%) and the MC-PVEM alliance (27.3%).
Michoacán: The Crime That Changed the Electoral Landscape
The murder of Carlos Manzo changed the electoral landscape in Michoacán. Before the crime, Morena dominated virtually all the polls. However, in recent months, Grecia Quiroz, the current mayor of Uruapan and Manzo’s widow, has capitalized on the discontent with the ruling party.
According to data presented by La Encuesta.mx, Grecia Quiroz would lead the polls with 33.8%, surpassing the Morena-PT-PVEM alliance’s candidate, Senator Raúl Morón Orozco, who garnered 28.7%.
The third position would be occupied by a potential candidacy of Alfonso Martínez, for the PAN-MC coalition, with 25.3%; while Guillermo Valencia of the PRI obtains 4.8%, and those who did not answer/did not know total 7.4%.
Nuevo León: The PAN-MC Alliance
The stronghold of Movimiento Ciudadano would be another state that Morena would lose in 2027 if there is an alliance between the PAN and MC.
The poll reveals that a hypothetical alliance would achieve a resounding 49.8%, compared to the 32.1% that the Morena-PT-PVEM coalition would obtain.
Currently, the state is governed by Samuel García, from Movimiento Ciudadano.
Campeche: The Alliance That Puts Layda Sansores in Check
The survey also revealed that in Campeche, a state governed by Morena with Layda Sansores, there are warning signs for the 4T (Fourth Transformation).
If the PAN-MC alliance were to compete for the governorship, they would obtain 43.3% of the vote, compared to 41.5% for Morena-PT-PVEM, thus winning the state from the 4T (Fourth Transformation).
PAN’s strongholds: Aguascalientes and Querétaro
The PAN maintains its lead in two strongholds, which is further strengthened if it forms an alliance with other parties.
The scenarios presented by the polling firm reflect that in Aguascalientes, the National Action Party (PAN) maintains a wide lead on its own with 42.1% of the vote, surpassing Morena, which reaches 34.3%.
When measuring coalitions, the PAN-MC alliance reaches 51.8%, far surpassing Morena-PT-PVEM, which registers 36.9%.
Meanwhile, in Querétaro, the PAN dominates its stronghold with 47.5% on its own compared to Morena’s 31.2%.
Source: politico
