This state, covering 73,922 square kilometers and the ninth largest in Mexico, ended the first half of 2026 with 921,734 inhabitants, of whom 451,515 are women and 470,219 are men, according to the National Population Council (CONAPO).
In 2020, the National Institute of Statistics and Geography reported 798,447 inhabitants: 392,568 women (49.2%) and 405,879 men (50.8%). Thus, in six and a half years, its population increased by more than 123,287 people.
In observance of World Population Day, celebrated annually on July 11, the National Population Council (CONAPO) specified that the largest population segment in Baja California Sur is the 30-59 age group (41.4%), followed by the 12-29 age group (30.1%), the 0-11 age group (17.8%), and those 60 and older (10.8%). This means that 47.9% of the population is 29 years old or younger.
Alberto Torres García, an economist at the Autonomous University of Baja California Sur (UABCS), commented that Baja California Sur faces a reality that combines opportunities and challenges.
“The state is experiencing one of the most dynamic economic periods in the country, driven by tourism, investment, and the constant influx of new people who find here a place to live, work, and build a future.”
In just two decades, he said, the state’s population has practically doubled, rising from 424,000 inhabitants in 2000 to 798,000 in 2020, and all indications are that this trend will continue in the coming years.
“But growth also means better preparation. The demand for housing, water, transportation, hospitals, schools, and public services will continue to increase, especially in Los Cabos and La Paz, where the growth is most pronounced.”
Therefore, he indicated that one of the biggest challenges will be ensuring that infrastructure keeps pace with population growth to avoid delays that ultimately affect the quality of life for both current residents and newcomers.
Tourism is the state’s economic engine, but other sectors need to be strengthened to generate higher-value jobs, Alberto Torres stated. / Photo: Raymundo León / El Sudcaliforniano
At the same time, he added, “Baja California Sur needs to look beyond tourism and strengthen other sectors that generate higher-value jobs and more diverse opportunities.”
In other words, its future will depend on transforming population growth into orderly, sustainable, and inclusive development; development in which economic well-being translates into better living conditions for all.
Dr. Lorella Castorena Davis, also from UABCS, stated that Baja California Sur is experiencing moderate population aging, as life expectancy has increased and currently stands at 77.2 years in the state.
After specifying that there are currently around 70,000 adults over 60 years of age in Baja California Sur, representing 10% of the population, she said that the population pyramid shows a pronounced aging trend. In 1970, there were 7.5 older adults for every 100 children; in 2020, that figure rose to 38.4, and projections for 2026 indicate 40 older adults for every 100 children.
Regarding demographic trends and migration, he stated that the fertility rate in Baja California Sur is 1.8 children per woman, which is below the rate of 2.1 needed for generational replacement; while migration (international and within the country) has been crucial to sustaining population growth and moderating aging.
Source: oem
